Monday, August 18, 2014

Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) Q2 Earnings Preview: Guidance to Power PLUG’s Direction

Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) will release the Company's 2014 second quarter results on August 14, 2014. before the market open.  On the same day, management will host a conference at 10:00 a.m. EDT to discuss these results.

Wall Street anticipates that the Fuel Cell company will lose -$0.04 for the quarter, which is $0.06 better than last year's loss of a dime per share. iStock expects Plug Power to beat Wall Street's consensus number; the iEstimate is -$0.03.

Sales, like earnings per share (EPS), are expected to increase, exploding 122.10% year-over-year (YoY). The consensus revenue estimate for Q2 is $16.65 million versus last year's $7.5 million. (Don't most NFL quarterback's make more money than that?)

[Related -Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) Q1 Earnings Preview: EPS Have Shocked Shares]

Plug Power Inc., an alternative energy technology provider, is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, and commercialization of fuel cell systems for the industrial off-road markets worldwide. It is focused on proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell and fuel processing technologies and fuel cell/battery hybrid technologies.

PLUG's reported EPS hugged the street's outlook four straight quarters, missing by a penny for the last three quarterly checkups and beating by a penny last year's Q2.   In fact, five of the last seven have been within a penny of the consensus with a two cent beat and six cent miss rounding the remainder.

[Related -Investing in Plug Power Inc. (PLUG)?]

Oddly, PLUG's price crashed -13.75% in the days surrounding the lone bullish surprise in the last year. In the last five-years, the alternative energy company posted eight bullish surprises in 20 opportunities. Shares lifted in the days surrounding four of the eight, but got whacked three of the last for better than expected results; dropping -13.75%, -8.4%, gaining 1.81% and losing -17.65% in the three days prior/after the profit news, from the most recent back.

Clearly, forward guidance is what drives PLUG's earnings-driven price sensitivity. On thus front, there are some pros and cons. There seems to be some momentum as Wal-Mart recently added to a fuel cell order, and UPS is experimenting with fuel cell powered delivery vans/trucks. On the other hand, cheap natural gas is making it difficult for fuel cells as an alternative.

Overall: The iEstimate and Plug Power Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PLUG) history suggest PLUG's earnings will hug the street's consensus; however, forward guidance will determine the stock's price swing. 

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