Tuesday, March 31, 2015

4 Investment Opportunities in Animal Health

Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) recently announced plans to sell its remaining 80% stake in animal-health company Zoetis (NYSE: ZTS  ) after about four months on the public market. Margins and profits aren't as high in the animal health business, which has pushed the world's largest pharmaceutical company to streamline its focus. It also highlights a delicate Catch-22 for Big Pharma.

While animal health companies represent a sizable chunk of total revenue in the dark days of the patent cliff, investors want to see pharma companies focus solely on pharma products to successfully clear the patent cliff. Pfizer ultimately decided to appease the masses. Depending on the success of Zoetis -- and perhaps its parent -- other pharmaceutical companies may decide to release their animal health businesses. That could open up several entirely new long-term investment opportunities for your portfolio.

The one and only?
The animal health business is a $100 billion global opportunity with a $22 billion medicines and vaccines segment that is growing at a CAGR of 6%. That represents the core focus for Zoetis, which has ridden the growth to become the largest animal health businesses in the world. It may be the first to test the public markets, but there are three other closely held companies investors can keep an eye on. 

Company, Parent

2012 Sales

2012 Sales Growth

% of Total Sales

Zoetis, Pfizer

$4.3 billion

3%

7.3%

Merck Animal Health, Merck (NYSE: MRK  )

$3.4 billion

4.5%

7.2%

Merial, Sanofi (NYSE: SNY  )

$2.9 billion

3.1%

6.2%

Elanco, Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY  )

$2.0 billion

21%

9%

Source: Company 2012 SEC filings.     

Merck has made a big push to keep Merck Animal Health on the fast track for growth and recently announced plans to relocate the division from the Netherlands to its New Jersey campus. The company hopes the move creates a more efficient business by bringing 300 employees into closer quarters and reducing costs. It also brings the company closer to America's massive cattle farms, for which Merck Animal Health offers dozens of products.   

Merial was founded in 1997 as a joint venture between Merck and Sanofi, but it was bought outright by Sanofi a few years ago for $4 billion (after Merck assumed the Intervet/Schering-Plough Animal Health business in its merger with the company). Considering that Zoetis, albeit a bit larger, is now worth $16.5 billion that move could pay off tremendously. With well-known companion products such as Frontline and Heartgard and dozens of products for livestock and horses, Merial should continue to grow comfortably in the years ahead.

And finally investors have Elanco, which is smaller but growing like a mangrove tree. Couple its growth with the fact that it represents 9% of Eli Lilly's total sales and it is easy to see why CFO Derica Rice flatly rejected the notion that it would consider a spinoff. Instead, the parent is pushing the company into major growth opportunities in emerging markets. I wouldn't expect the company to grow at a 21% clip for the next few years, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it ascend the list above. 

Forbidden: patent cliffs and insurers
You may question why an animal health business belongs in your portfolio at all. Although margins may be lower than human pharmaceutical businesses there are several key advantages. Animal health companies don't have to face generic competition or deal with pesky insurers -- two of the biggest risks juggled by Big Pharma. It also helps that livestock vaccines represent a relatively small cost for the food industry and pay big dividends for productivity, so farmers don't question their usage.

Foolish bottom line
Unfortunately, investors looking to get into these businesses must invest in their pharmaceutical parents or simply wait for an IPO. There are no current plans for Merck Animal Health, Merial, or Elanco to go public, but I think investors will see these companies sport tickers of their own in the not-too-distant future. If that does happen you should consider an investment. The industry is enormous, growing, and relatively stable. Besides, if Roofus gets sick you'll probably pay whatever veterinarian bill comes your way to get him back into top mailman-chasing shape. It only makes sense to take advantage of these investment opportunities.

One more big advantage: animal health companies get to steer clear of Obamacare, which will undoubtedly have far-reaching effects. The Motley Fool's new free report "Everything You Need to Know About Obamacare" lets you know how your health insurance, your taxes, and your portfolio will be affected. Click here to read more. 

GasLog Increases Sales but Misses Revenue Estimate

GasLog (NYSE: GLOG  ) reported earnings on May 15. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), GasLog missed estimates on revenues and met expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew significantly. Non-GAAP earnings per share dropped. GAAP earnings per share expanded significantly.

Gross margins dropped, operating margins shrank, net margins grew.

Revenue details
GasLog logged revenue of $21.8 million. The seven analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ hoped for a top line of $22.3 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 31% higher than the prior-year quarter's $16.6 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.05. The 10 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ averaged $0.05 per share. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.05 for Q1 were 17% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.06 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.09 for Q1 were 80% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.05 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 77.6%, 140 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 27.8%, 50 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 27.1%, much better than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $33.8 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.11.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $145.2 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.58.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 23 members out of 27 rating the stock outperform, and four members rating it underperform. Among four CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), four give GasLog a green thumbs-up, and give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on GasLog is buy, with an average price target of $16.38.

Can your portfolio provide you with enough income to last through retirement? You'll need more than GasLog. Learn how to maximize your investment income and "Secure Your Future With 9 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks." Click here for instant access to this free report.

Add GasLog to My Watchlist.

ATK to Acquire Shotgun and Hunting Rifle Maker

Virginia-based ammo and munitions maker ATK  (NYSE: ATK  )  is buying itself a new gunmaker.

ATK announced this morning that it has agreed to buy Caliber Co., the parent company of Savage Sports, for $315 million cash, representing a 5.5 multiple of its trailing-12-month EBITDA. Savage is one of the world's largest manufacturers of hunting rifles and shotguns and has been in business for more than 100 years. ATK anticipates the deal bringing long guns to its portfolio will close by the end of June.

Saying the acquisition will add to its growing portfolio of consumer brands including Federal Premium, CCI, Fusion, and Speer, ATK CEO Mark DeYoung said: "This opportunity will allow us to build upon our offerings with Savage's prominent, respected brands known for accuracy, quality, innovation, value and craftsmanship. Savage's sales distribution channels, new product development, and sophistication in manufacturing will significantly increase our presence with a highly relevant product offering to distributors, retailers and consumers."

Savage is located in Westfield, Mass., and Lakefield, Ontario, Canada, and operates under the brand names Savage Arms, Stevens, and Savage Range Systems. It designs, manufactures and markets centerfire and rimfire rifles, shotguns and shooting range systems used for hunting as well as competitive and recreational target shooting. It employs approximately 600 workers.

ATK believes the acquisition will be accretive to its current fiscal year earnings per share. It will finance the acquisition with cash on hand and funds available under its existing credit facility.

link

Sunday, March 29, 2015

The Biggest Comic Book Opening of the Summer Might Surprise You

While Man of Steel is expected to headline Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX  ) comic book film slate this summer, the company could see huge returns from a new video game that made its debut last week: Injustice: Gods Among Us.

In years past, video-game openings have rivaled film premieres for how much they've brought in. Think of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) , whose Halo 4 generated $220 million in first-day sales. Or how about Activision Blizzard's (NASDAQ: ATVI  ) Black Ops II, which took in $500 million worldwide during its first 24 hours on sale?

For all the potential upside in Iron Man 3, which opens internationally on April 26 for Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS  ) , Warner with Man of Steel and Injustice is positioning itself to have as big a summer season as the House of Mouse, or even bigger, says Tim Beyers of Motley Fool Rule Breakers and Motley Fool Supernova in the following interview with The Motley Fool's Erin Miller.

Please watch this short video to get Tim's full take, and then leave a comment to let us know whether you'd buy, sell, or short Time Warner stock now, and why.

It's easy to forget that Walt Disney is more than just the House of Mouse. True, Disney amusement parks around the world hosted more than 121 million guests in 2011. But from its vast catalog of characters to its monster collection of media networks, much of Disney's allure for investors lies in its diversity, and The Motley Fool's premium research report lays out the case for investing in Disney today. This report includes the key items investors must watch as well as the opportunities and threats the company faces going forward. So don't miss out -- simply click here now to claim your copy today.

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Q&A: Passing on a small business to children

Wayne Bergman is a coach with the business coaching firm ActionCOACH. It has 1,000 offices in 32 countries. He has 25 years of military and oil industry leadership experience.

Q: What are some of the biggest issues when a small-business owner wants to retire and pass the business to his or her children?

A: Family alignment: The owner will not live forever, but the business can. There is nothing more important for an owner than planning the future success of the business and the family. The owner must be prepared for an honest and realistic conversation with the family about their vision and goals for the succession and legacy of the business.

Finances: The successor(s) must have the resources and skills needed to buy and sustain the success of the business.

Timing: Set a target date and prepare the leadership team to be ready on that date. The owner must have a plan and be ready to let go and step away.

Who: Selecting an internal successor who has the desire and has demonstrated their willingness to do the work needed to be as or more successful than the current owner.

Successor readiness: The successor and the new leadership and management team must be ready to sustain the success of the business. The successor has been trained and ready to be a successful owner and leader. Transferring as much owner's knowledge takes planning, time and mentoring. A career development process proving key business skills in a range of real-world situations, challenges and assignments compliments the readiness process.

Q: You say business owners often turn to a third party for help. What kind of a third party, and how can they help?

A: Develop a team of advisers to include: The company CPA (financials, tax planning, valuation/appraisal); attorney (business transfer, tax laws, estate); business coach (owner accountability, leadership and team development, process and systems, increase business value); financial adviser (retirement, wealth and estate plans); insurance advi! ser and others as needed.

Q: What's the best-case scenario and what's the worst when it doesn't work out?

Best scenario: The succession process aligns all key players, inside and outside the operation of the business, and agrees to sustain the growth of the business and implement the intention and vision of the owner. The next generation is innovative and acts as a cohesive ownership team to grow the business while preserving and strengthening the legacy of the family based on values.

Worst scenario No. 1: The owner is unable to transfer ownership to the family as planned prior to the death of the owner. The transfer to family is complex and takes longer than expected so if the owner is incapacitated or dies, the potential disruption or failure is a serious risk.

Worst scenario No. 2: The family business self-destructs due to family dynamics, internal rivalries/infighting, loss of trust and conflict among the family before or after the succession plan is implemented. There are no clear criteria, standards and rules for managing the business toward successful growth.

Friday, March 27, 2015

App Stores to Generate $25 Billion

Certain sectors of the economy remain extremely robust despite global macroeconomic challenges. In particular, the mobile app economy is expected to reach surpass $25 billion this year, according to ABI Research. Smartphones are expected to rake in $16.4 billion of app spending, leaving $8.8 billion for tablet app spending. By 2018, ABI expects that tablet app purchases will grow larger than smartphone app spending. In this video, Motley Fool contributor Steve Heller discusses the details of this report and which companies are likely in the best position to benefit. The two big winners? Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) . 

There's a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on both reasons to buy and reasons to sell Apple, and what opportunities are left for the company (and your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thinking on Apple, simply click here now.

Monday, March 23, 2015

Movie Theaters Hate It When Netflix and IMAX Team Up

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX  ) , The Weinstein Company, IMAX (NYSE: IMAX  ) , and major movie theaters are locked in a four-way battle regarding a controversial plan to simultaneously release Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: The Green Legend simultaneously on Netflix and IMAX theaters.

The film, which is the sequel to Ang Lee's Oscar-winning 2000 martial arts movie, won't share much in common with its predecessor -- most of the original cast and crew won't return, and it will be shot in English rather than Chinese. The first film was a huge hit, grossing nearly $214 million on a tiny budget of $17 million, so it'll be interesting to see if the sequel can replicate that success when it arrives Aug. 28, 2015.

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Source: Sony

Netflix secured the film for a same-day release thanks to its close relationship with The Weinstein Company, with which it holds a pay-TV exclusivity agreement. Netflix's chief content officer, Ted Sarandos, told The New York Times that the proposed release, which will reach over 50 million subscribers and select IMAX theaters simultaneously, could encourage other studios to challenge the traditional 90-day delay which shields theaters from DVD sales, rentals, and digital distribution channels.

Theaters are, naturally, opposed that plan. The two largest theater chains in the U.S. -- Regal Entertainment (NYSE: RGC  ) and Dalian Wanda's AMC Entertainment -- have announced that they won't show the film. IMAX has a contractual right to override theater-chain decisions for certain venues, but it waived that right in the Crouching Tiger negotiations, since it didn't want to force theaters to show the film.

Now that the battle lines have been clearly drawn, can The Weinstein Company, Netflix, and IMAX still redefine same-day releases, or will the theaters crush the oddball sequel and turn it into a straight-to-video release?

The business of same-day movie releases
The concept of same-day home and theatrical releases is relatively new to the film industry.

In 2011, Comcast's (NASDAQ: CMCSA  ) Universal charged viewers $60 to watch Tower Heist a few weeks after its theatrical release via a fast-tracked VOD, but most customers scoffed at the price. Later that year, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX  ) released same-day VOD versions of Melancholia, Trespass, and Margin Call, at more reasonable prices between $7 to $10. That business model, which was used for lower profile films, remained the status quo over the past three years.

With the crowdfunded Veronica Mars, which hit theaters in March, Warner convinced AMC to agree to the same-day release by renting out its theaters. Warner retained the box office sales, in hopes that it could produce a profit after AMC's rental fees ($5,000 to $20,000 per week) were deducted. Regal and Cinemark (NYSE: CNK  ) , however, do not rent out their theaters for same-day releases.

Veronica Mars. Source: Warner

The big problem with IMAX's involvement in The Green Legend is that it breaks the status quo in two ways.

First, same-day VOD releases weren't IMAX blockbusters. Second, Netflix isn't using the a la carte VOD model for The Green Legend -- it is offering the film to subscribers for free.

To theaters, this is the top of a slippery slope. If distributors can launch a film simultaneously on Netflix and theaters, they might generate more revenue from the former than the latter. Theaters retain 20% to 80% of ticket sales, depending on the week of release, while Netflix pays distributors consistent royalties to stream their content. Moreover, other high-profile distributors could start releasing its big summer hits simultaneously on Netflix, causing theater revenues to plummet as audiences stay home and watch the films on their 4K TVs instead.

Why theaters have the upper hand
Despite those challenges, theaters still have the upper hand when it comes to negotiating with distributors.

Although digital distribution is getting more advanced and TVs are getting much bigger, the global box office for all films still rose 4% year over year in 2013, according to the Motion Picture Association of America. More than two-thirds of the population in the U.S. and Canada (nearly five times larger than Netflix's user base) went to the theaters at least once in 2013, which was consistent with growth from previous years. This means that theaters, not Netflix or VOD, are still the best place to debut a film for widespread distribution.

More importantly, if the theater chains all band together in refusing to show same-day films, they effectively cripple distributors by turning their films into straight-to-video releases.

Looking ahead, things don't look good for The Green Legend if AMC, Regal, Cinemark, and other theater chains maintain a united front.

IMAX was clearly the weak link in Netflix and Weinstein's plans, since it wasn't willing to force theaters to show the film when it could have done so. This was a smart move for IMAX, since it relies on positive relationships with theaters to thrive, but it will also likely prevent big screen blockbusters from hitting Netflix and theaters at the same time in the near future.

Your cable company is scared, but you can get rich
You know cable's going away. But do you know how to profit? There's $2.2 trillion out there to be had. Currently, cable grabs a big piece of it. That won't last. And when cable falters, three companies are poised to benefit. Click here for their names. Hint: They're not Netflix, Google, and Apple.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Adidas pays $1.3 billion in Manchester United deal

adidas nike Germany was wearing Adidas when it beat Argentina to win the 2014 World Cup. LONDON (CNNMoney) Hot on the heels of World Cup success, Adidas has landed one of the most prized sponsorships in sports: Manchester United will wear its logo for the next 10 years.

The German sports apparel company has agreed to pay the English soccer club at least £750 million ($1.3 billion) over the period of the contract, more than double the value of its existing deal with Nike (NKE).

World Cup winner Germany, and runner-up Argentina, both wore Adidas (ADDDF) in Sunday's final in Rio de Janeiro.

Adidas also sponsored the three players who took top honors for individual performances during the tournament in Brazil.

Nike is the world's largest sports apparel company by revenue, but lags behind Adidas when it comes to soccer. Both companies are hoping record TV audiences for the World Cup will boost their business in this area.

Under the deal with Manchester United (MANU), Adidas will provide uniforms for all the club's teams from the 2015 - 2016 season. Adidas will also be the exclusive worldwide distributor of Manchester United branded merchandise.

"We expect total sales to reach £1.5 billion during the duration of our partnership," said Adidas CEO Herbert Hainer.

Nike's 13-year contract with the club will end with the close of the 2014 - 2015 season.

Adidas signed up despite a sharp deterioration in Manchester United's performance since legendary coach Alex Ferguson retired a year ago.

Nike 1, Adidas 0   Nike 1, Adidas 0

Under Ferguson, the team had won the richest national soccer league for 13 of the last 21 years, and used the steady flow of broadcast and matchday revenue to invest in players and build a global commercial brand.

The team ended the 2013 - 2014 season without success in domestic league and cup competitions, and it also failed to qualify for Europe's top competition -- the Champion's League -- meaning the loss of some $50 million in related broadcast revenue and prime time TV exposure.

Still, the club's fortunes off the field have continued to improve. In the three months ending in March 2014, Manchester United reported record revenues and operating profit. Broadcast revenue was up 64% and commercial revenue rose by 19%.

!

Nike's deal was worth a minimum of £303 million -- or £23 million a year -- to Manchester United, but over the last three years had paid out more than £34 million on average thanks to profit sharing on merchandise.

The new contract with Adidas could be worth more than the club makes from the English Premier League (£64 million in 2013), making it the single biggest source of revenue.

Monday, March 16, 2015

Automakers Recall Millions of Cars for Defective Air Bags

Takata Airbags Lead Toyota, Nissan To Recall 3 Million Cars Koichi Kamoshida/Bloomberg via Getty Images DETROIT -- Faulty air bags -- which have already led to the recall of millions of cars worldwide -- are blamed for a new round of recalls in the U.S. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the government's auto safety agency, said Monday that BMW, Chrysler, Ford (F), Honda (HMC), Mazda, Nissan and Toyota (TM) will recall cars sold in places where hot, humid weather can potentially affect the air bags. The older-model cars have air bag inflators that can rupture. If that happens, the air bags might not work properly in a crash, and shards from the broken system could fly out and cause injury. The automakers all have air bag systems made by Takata Corp., a Tokyo-based supplier of seat belts, air bags, steering wheels and other auto parts. NHTSA opened an investigation this month after getting six reports of air bags rupturing in Florida and Puerto Rico. Three people were injured in those cases. It had estimated 1.1 million vehicles automakers in the U.S. could be affected, but the total is likely to climb. Honda, for example, said it will include 10 states and territories in its recall, including Texas, Georgia and South Carolina. Honda says Takata recommended recalling cars in four places: Florida, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The government says it wanted to act quickly in warm states while it continues to investigate the issue. "Based on the limited data available at this time, NHTSA supports efforts by automakers to address the immediate risk in areas that have consistently hot, humid conditions over extended periods of time," the agency said in a statement. Honda says too much pressure may be building up in the system, causing the air bags to deploy with too much force. In one complaint last August, a Honda driver's lawyer told NHTSA that the car was in a crash, and both driver and passenger air bags inflated. The driver's air bag inflator ruptured "and propelled a one-inch piece of shrapnel into the driver's right eye." The driver lost sight and suffered cuts requiring 100 stitches to close, the complaint said. Takata's air bags have been the subject of multiple recalls in recent months. In April 2013, Toyota, Honda and Nissan recalled nearly 3.4 million older-model vehicles worldwide due to a problem with the propellant in the air bags that could lead to fires. But Takata recently realized that recall didn't include all of the potentially faulty air bags. Earlier this month, Toyota recalled 2.27 million more cars globally. And on Monday in Japan, Honda, Mazda and Nissan together recalled nearly 3 million more. NHTSA said automakers who use airbags made by Takata will repair the vehicles for free, and in most cases replace both the driver's side and passenger side air bag inflators. All of the automakers except Honda are limiting the recalls to Florida, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, on the advice of Takata. The following automakers and vehicles will be included in the recall, according to letters sent to NHTSA by the various automakers: BMW: BMW 2001-2005 3 Series sedan, 2001-2006 3 Series coupe, 2001-2005 3 Series sports wagon and 2001-2006 3 Series convertible. BMW says it has not yet determined how many vehicles are affected. It will begin notifying owners in August. Chrysler: Chrysler is still determining which vehicles are affected. Ford: Ford expects to recall 58,669 vehicles, including the 2005-2007 Mustang, 2005-2007 GT and 2004 Ranger pickup truck. Ford said it is still working on a schedule to notify owners. Honda: Honda will recall vehicles in Florida, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as well as Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas. The company hasn't yet determined the number of vehicles, but believes it is more than 1 million. Honda will replace the driver's side air bag inflator in the 2001-2007 Accord (four-cylinder engine), 2001-2002 Accord (V6), 2001-2005 Civic, 2002-2006 CR-V, 2003-2011 Element, 2002-2004 Odyssey, 2002-2007 Pilot, 2006 Ridgeline, 2003-2006 Acura MDX and 2002-2003 Acura TL/CL. The company will replace passenger side air bag inflators in the 2003-2005 Accord, Civic, CR-V, Element, Odyssey, Pilot; the 2003-2005 Acura MDX and the 2005 Acura RL. Mazda: Mazda expects to recall 34,600 vehicles, including the 2003-2007 Mazda6, 2004-2008 RX-8, 2006-2007 Mazdaspeed6 and 2004 MPV. Mazda is still working on a schedule to notify owners. Nissan: Nissan said it is still determining which vehicles are affected.

Staycations: Get More of Your Summer Fun Closer to Home

Young Tourist Couple Sightseeing on a Bus in New York, With the Man Taking a Photograph  Image #:    dv1286010  License type: Getty Summer is peak season for most travel, and peak season means peak prices. To enjoy a wonderful summer vacation without the big expense of travel, follow these tips for an enjoyable staycation. Why Skip the Travel? Many of us tend to discount the attractions in our own back yards. It's easy to feel blasé about what's nearby when there's a big, beautiful world out there just waiting to be seen -- places that we can't just hop in the car and drive to anytime. That's a valid point -- but not for every single vacation. With all the other financial needs we have, from saving for retirement to managing our debt, it's better not to bust the budget every time we have a week off by flying across country or going overseas. But that certainly doesn't mean you can't have an awesome week of fun. Among the many benefits of staycations: No stressing over complicated plans in an unfamiliar setting. No layovers, no flight delays and no long plane rides with screaming kids. More time to enjoy your plans because you will spend less time traveling. Hundreds, if not thousands of dollars saved. Be a Tourist in Your Own Town

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Even If It's Not Driverless, Your Car Will Make More Choices Soon

Google's Driverless Cars Eric Risberg/AP

-- Overheard at a used car dealer

Whether you sympathize with that sentiment or think the car buyer overheard above is an automotive Luddite, the fact remains: Long term, he's probably out of luck. Manual transmissions are going the way of the dodo. While there are still a few available -- Honda's Accord, Volkswagen's Passat and BMW's 3 Series being notable examples -- there seems to be a widespread preference for automatic. And if the trends travel much farther along the road we're on now, pretty soon, the cars really will be driving us -- and not just automatically, but autonomously. (Almost) Self-Driving Cars

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Yellen Says Extraordinary Support Needed for 'Some Time'

The Asahi Shimbun via Getty ImagesFederal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, easing investor concern that interest rates may rise earlier than previously forecast, said the world's biggest economy will need Fed stimulus for "some time." Yellen said Monday the Fed hasn't done enough to combat unemployment even after holding interest rates near zero for more than five years and pumping up its balance sheet to $4.23 trillion with bond purchases. "This extraordinary commitment is still needed and will be for some time, and I believe that view is widely shared by my fellow policy makers," Yellen said at a community development conference in Chicago. "The scars from the Great Recession remain, and reaching our goals will take time." Yellen spotlighted as evidence "real people behind the statistics," describing how one person, Vicki Lira, lost two jobs, endured homelessness and now serves food samples part-time at a grocery store. Stocks rose as Yellen underscored the Fed's commitment to spur the economy and put 10.5 million unemployed Americans back to work. Share prices fell on March 19, when she said in a press conference that the Fed might start raising the benchmark interest rate above zero about six months after ending its bond purchase program. Yellen didn't mention a timetable Monday. "It is an indirect pushback," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies in New York. "I don't think she could directly contradict what she said at the press conference, so she did the next best thing, which was to paint a picture of a Fed that is going to be accommodative for a long, long time." Fed Policy The Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GPSC) rose 0.8 percent to 1,873.00 at 2:47 p.m. in New York. The yield on two-year Treasury notes, which are sensitive to changes in Fed policy, fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 0.43 percent. Large numbers of partly unemployed workers, stagnant wages, lower labor-force participation and longer periods of joblessness show that "there remains considerable slack in the economy and the labor market," Yellen said. Monday's speech shows Yellen is inclined to press on with accommodation to boost employment because she focused on slack in the labor market and didn't mention economic growth or "more hawkish themes" such as the risks from record easing, said Thomas Costerg, an economist at Standard Chartered in New York. "It was dovish and Yellen-esque, but she didn't explicitly backpedal on the six months comment so that's a ghost that will stay in the background," Costerg said. "She didn't explicitly say 'Oh, I made a mistake,' she just stressed the other way, that we need accommodative policy for some time." Economic Performance At her press conference last month, Yellen emphasized that the timing for an increase in the main interest rate hinges on economic performance. The FOMC needs "to see where the labor market is," she said on March 19, adding that if inflation "is persistently below" the central bank's 2 percent goal, "that is a very good reason to hold the funds rate at its present range for longer." Inflation decelerated to a 0.9 percent 12-month pace in February from 1.2 percent in January and has been below the Fed's 2 percent target for almost two years. Yellen's speech Monday included references to "slack," a term also used recently by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to underscore a pledge to keep interest rates at a record low. Spare Capacity The Fed, which this month dropped its link between low interest rates and a specific unemployment rate, followed a similar move by U.K. policy makers, who in February tied their outlook for borrowing costs to spare capacity in the labor market and other more qualitative measures. "There remains scope to absorb slack further" before raising rates, the BOE said in its quarterly Inflation Report. Yellen, 67, has focused on the labor market and the human cost of unemployment for much of her career as an academic and central bank official. Monday she described two other individuals from the Chicago area along with Lira, saying they "shared their personal stories with me." Dorine Poole lost a claims-processing job and struggled to find work after two years of unemployment, while Jermaine Brownlee, a plumber and construction worker, "scrambled for odd jobs and temporary work" and still makes less than before the recession, Yellen said. "They are a reminder that there are real people behind the statistics, struggling to get by and eager for the opportunity to build better lives," Yellen said. "Their experiences show some of the uniquely challenging and lasting effects of the Great Recession." Full Time Yellen was also clear about what labor-market indicators she is watching aside from the unemployment rate. She mentioned that 7 million people working part-time want to work full time, a share of the work force that is "very high historically." The Fed chief said low numbers of people are quitting jobs "because they worry that it will be hard to find another," adding that gains in labor compensation have been "very low." The FOMC has kept the benchmark interest rate near zero since December 2008 and sought to cut borrowing costs and fuel growth through bond buying that has more than quadrupled its assets to $4.23 trillion. While policy makers have slowed the pace of their monthly asset purchases over the past three gatherings to $55 billion from $85 billion, Yellen said the central bank's "commitment is strong" to helping sustain progress in the job market. Recent Progress "Recent steps by the Fed to reduce the rate of new securities purchases are not a lessening of this commitment, only a judgment that recent progress in the labor market means our aid for the recovery need not grow as quickly," she said. "Earlier this month, the Fed reiterated its overall commitment to maintain extraordinary support for the recovery for some time to come." The FOMC said in a policy statement this month that rates will likely remain low for a considerable time after the bond buying program ends. The committee said it will weigh a "wide range of information," including labor-market measures, in deciding when it will eventually begin raising rates. Unemployment was 6.7 percent in February, up from the 6.6 percent level in January that was the lowest since October 2008. The economy added 175,000 jobs in February, more than economists projected, following the weakest two-month hiring gain in more than a year in December and January.

Sunday, March 8, 2015

EMC Corporation (NYSE:EMC): Positive Feedback For Xtremio Strengthens Flash Array Footing

The long-anticipated launch this quarter of EMC Corporation's (NYSE:EMC) XtremIO has been met with the kind of enthusiasm that one saw during the Isilon rollout.

EMC expects XtremIO to be a leader in the all-flash array market, which IDC forecasts of $1.2 billion in revenue by 2015. The new array is in high demand already, with 10 Petabytes of effective deduplicated capacity already sold through EMC's Directed Availability program (announced in March 2013).

The platform enables a much stronger competitive response to the likes of Nimbus Data and Pure Storage in the Channel. It also opens up virtual desktop infrastructure (VDI) deals that were not having as much traction with the VNX-F array, which can reduce capacity requirements by 50 percent through data dedupe/compression, thus allowing EMC to hit key storage costs price points within a VDI deal.

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As EMC has commented, 70 percent of XtremIO deals are part of a VDI project while new markets and opportunities are similar to what Isilon enabled in scale-out NAS.

The initial feedback on the XtremIO rollout from EMC resellers has been positive as the new All Flash Array (AFA) is finding traction with new VDI-led projects.

Sterne Agee analyst Alex Kurtz says that the premium pricing of EMC on XtremIO performance may prevent wider cannibalization of VMAX. The channel seems enthused by the new platform for 2014 growth opportunities and responding to Pure and Violin Memory's (NYSE:VMEM) growth.

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The analyst added that EMC's pricing of XtremIO has little to do with price per GB (how Pure and Violin are approaching the market) and more to do with driving a performance and sustained IOPS discussion.

On a simple price per GB comparative basis, XtremIO is at least 3 times more expensive than a VMAX array. This creates two key dynamics which opens up! competition such as Pure/Nimbus to exploiting the price difference, and if EMC sales and Channel can bifurcate the products capabilities (VMAX has much broader redundancy services than XtremIO), then XtremIO should have a positive economic impact in the next 12-18 months for EMC's model as it expands TAM.

High pricing means that EMC can protect broader encroachment in big VMAX installations, which is an assumption for now till Violin and Pure's GTM model matures.

Further, EMC's is making inroads in All Flash Array (AFA) market, which could reach $1.7 billion by 2015, based on the assumption of 1 percent penetration for the AFA market in 2012 reaching 6 percent penetration by 2015. By 2015, Kurtz assumes about 10 percent of the high end market could have moved to AFA.

The key challenge for the incumbents in the market will be transitioning some workloads to AFA from a monolithic array. Differentiated products like VPLEX from EMC enable customers to more broadly deploy different Array platforms across locations, which would help EMC maintain order as AFA adoption increases.

The recent launch of XtremIO expands the company's reach into the Flash Array market where they have had limited reach thus far with the VNX-F product.

XtremIO should help accelerate EMC's penetration of VDI instances where start-ups have found early success. The details of the architecture suggest a similar framework to Isilon Systems with scale-out, linear performance (and thus a familiar selling motion for the sales force, channel).

EMC XtremIO features several unique flash innovations including a scale-out multi-controller architecture with linear scalability; deduplication that is always on, and always inline; data protection that is 6 times more efficient and 4 times faster than traditional RAID.

Customers are looking to all-flash arrays to support workloads that need predictable and consistent low-latency across datasets that frequently change – such as VDI, virtual servers, massively! consolid! ated databases and test/development environments.

With XtremIO, these workloads not only achieve better performance but also improved $/IOPS and greater administrative simplicity. Better customer satisfaction would improve sales.

In addition, XtremIO is integrated within the EMC ecosystem to provide additional capabilities, ease-of-use, and compatibility. A VCE Vblock Specialized System for Extreme Applications based on XtremIO all-flash arrays provides unparalleled VDI end-user computing performance at unprecedented cost per virtual desktop, which customers can begin ordering by the end of 2013.

XtremIO array management is also integrated with VMware vSphere and accelerated with VMware's VAAI storage APIs. In addition, XtremIO is supported with other EMC technologies including EMC VPLEX, EMC PowerPath and EMC Secure Remote Support (ESRS).