Monday, March 17, 2014

Wall Street braces for busy, uncertain week

Wall Street enters the new week on edge amid a fluid situation in Ukraine, a key Federal Reserve meeting and a big batch of economic data that will shed light on the health of the U.S. economy.

Here are five things Wall Street will be watching this week.

1. The response to the vote in Crimea. The Crimean people voted Sunday to break from Ukraine and return to Mother Russia. The initial financial market reaction was muted, as stocks actually rallied in Europe and U.S. shares were pointing up in pre-market trading. Investors are gearing up for "stage two" of the crisis, as they await a response from Russia and expected sanctions imposed on Moscow by the U.S. and Europe.

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2. Fed press conference. The nation's central bank kicks off a two-day meeting tomorrow, and new Fed chair Janet Yellen will hold here first press conference with reporters on Wednesday. Investors expect the Fed to announce that it will reduce its monthly bond purchases by another $10 billion. Wall Street, however, will be watching to see if Yellen changes the Fed's forward "guidance" relating to when it will begin to hike short-term interest rates. Currently, the Fed is using a 6.5% unemployment rate "threshold" to guide its timing, but that data point is expected to be phased out in favor of more "qualitative" guidance.

3. Blue-chip Dow. Investors will be watching to see if the Dow can end its five-session losing streak. Last week, the Dow fell all five days for the first time since May 2012, dipping 2.4%. Stocks were weighed down by uncertainty related to the crisis in Ukraine and fears of slowing growth in China.

4. Incoming economic data. It's a big week for fresh readings on the economy. Today, Wall Street gets March data on manufacturing in the New York region and the February reading on industrial production. Tomorrow data on consumer inflation and housing starts will be released. Later in the week, investors will get a peak ! at manufacturing strength in the Philadelphia region and February sales of existing homes.

5. Alibaba buzz. The Chinese e-commerce giant has decided to list its initial public offering, or IPO, which could raise as much as $15 billion, later this year in the U.S. That news will generate buzz in the hot IPO market and generate talk of an IPO business win for U.S. stock exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange.

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