Saturday, June 2, 2012

U.S. earnings, data to command attention

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) � A wealth of U.S. economic data and earnings reports in the coming week and the possible Facebook IPO will likely capture investor attention in the week ahead, even as Europe�s troubles continue to simmer.

The coming week will see consumer spending and confidence figures, auto sales, productivity data, manufacturing and services data, and the all-important nonfarm payrolls figure at the end of the week.

Click to Play U.S. Week Ahead: Exxon, Amazon, Jobs

A new month begins with a barrage of data, from manufacturing surveys to unemployment. Markets also will absorb quarterly results from Exxon Mobil, Pfizer, UPS, Amazon and more. Plus, Facebook might make a long-awaited IPO filing, MarketWatch's Laura Mandaro says.

For months, U.S. economic indicators have taken a back seat to headlines out of Europe but as confidence grows that the euro zone will not implode, the market�s prime focus will shift to the health of the U.S. economy, analysts say.

�There�s a lot here that can shift the market,� said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

Along with the economic data, nearly 100 companies in the S&P 500 Indexwill be reporting quarterly earnings. They include ExxonMobil Corp. XOM , Pfizer Inc. PFE � Merck Inc. MRK , and Amazon.com AMZN �. Also, the week may see the long-awaited initial public offering filing of social networking site Facebook.

Gradually improving U.S. economic indicators, while positive, haven�t been robust enough to convince investors that the U.S. economy is improving. The 2.8% rise in GDP during the fourth quarter, reported on Friday, fell shy of consensus estimates, and was largely attributed to a build-up of inventories at businesses. Read more on fourth-quarter GDP.

Stocks ended the week mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA �off 0.5% from the previous Friday, while the S&P 500 Index SPX � ended up just 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP �gained 1.1% on a weekly basis.

Of the 172 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly earnings so far, 65% have beat the consensus estimate, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet Research. That�s a little lower than the 73% average from S&P 500 companies over the past four quarters, Butters said in a note.

All the more reason to focus on U.S. economic indicators, said Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede. Between a slowdown in earnings growth and a slight improvement in economic indicators, he prefers to look at the indicators to gauge the health of U.S. businesses.

Pride will be looking at the Dallas Fed�s manufacturing outlook survey on Monday, the Chicago Purchasing Managers� Index on Tuesday, along with the Institute for Supply Management�s manufacturing index on Wednesday and services index on Friday.

�Those give a good picture on how businesses are feeling, because they have a good look-ahead data to them,� Pride said.

The new orders component of the ISM manufacturing report will be of special interest to Russ Koesterich, global head of investment strategy for iShares at Blackrock, global head of investment strategy at Blackrock.

�It�s a relatively reasonable indicator for growth over the next quarter,� Koesterich said. �It�s the most relevant leading indicator of what GDP will be that quarter.�

The fact that much of the data will be breaking as February begins also makes the market more sensitive to it, given that February and September are the two months where the market has struggled the most, Luschini said.

�Aside from new-home sales, data has been encouragingly positive,� he said. On Thursday, December new-home sales dropped to wipe out much of November�s gains to turn in the worst year in sales on record. More on 2011 new home sales.

Luschini said he is focusing on the consumer indicators like December spending on Monday and January confidence on Tuesday with an eye on the January jobs report on Friday.

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