Monday, July 2, 2012

Stocks, Dollar Rise on Data Trifecta

Stocks are up, the dollar’s stronger against the Euro, and commodities are in decline following higher-than-expected initial unemployment claims, weaker-than-expected December retail sales data, and a higher-than-expected build-up in inventories.

Initial claims for unemployment last week rose 11,000 from the prior week to 444,000, the U.S. Department of Labor reported; observers expected a tick upward, but more like 437,000. Retail sales for December, meantime, fell 0.3% from November, to $353 billion, the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of the Census reported. That’s well below the Street’s expectation for a 5% rise. Commerce Secretary Locke said the country “has work to do” in putting people back to work despite a 7% annual rate of increase in retail sales in the fourth quarter.

And, completing a data trifecta, the Census Bureaualso reported that business inventories rose 0.4% to $1.3 trillion in November from October. That’s double the rise analysts were looking for. Our friends at RDQ Economics this morning take the view that the rise in inventories means much of the burn-off of inventories has been completed, leading to a 5% annual rate of GDP growth in Q4.

Equities were mixed, with the Dow up 7 points at, 10,687, while the S&P was off half a point at 1,145. The dollar strengthened against the Euro to $1.4480 from last night’s close of $1.4511. Oil futures for light sweet crude for delivery in March fell 46 cents to $79.58.

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