Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Wait, Cliffs Natural Resources is Buying Back Its Stock?

Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) is up 1% today after the beaten-down iron and coal miner said it would spend $200 million to buy back its shares. Citigroup’s Brian Yu would have preferred Cliffs using the cash to pay down its debt:

Reuters

Cliffs Natural's Board approved a $200 mln share repurchase program that translates to 8.1% of current shares outstanding or 7.0% of outstanding if we include the mandatory convertible preferred. With net-debt of $3.1 bln at the end of 2Q14 and estimated leverage of 4.4x for 2014E, our expectation is that deleveraging would be more of a priority, especially with iron ore priced around $90/tonne, approximating Citi's 2015 forecast of $90/tonne. On our 2015E numbers, Cliffs Natural's leverage jumps to 6.0x, assuming the company idles Bloom Lake. If management opts to run Bloom Lake to facilitate a drawn-out sale, there would be downside risk to our numbers, holding all else equal.

In our opinion, the buyback program could make sense if the Board is more positive on iron ore prices vs our expectations and expects to fund the buyback with proceeds from asset sales. As well the high dividend yield of 3.8% is not supporting the current share price, in our view, and could be jettisoned as a source of funds for the buyback.

Shares of Cliffs Natural Resources have gained 1% to $15.96 at 1:37 p.m. today. They’ve dropped 39% so far this year.

Saturday, August 23, 2014

This Casino Stock Can Be a Profitable Investment

Gaming has turned into an essential source of amusement and leisure for most individuals. This is proven by the development of gaming revenue in Macau, the main place in China where gaming is lawful.

The most unmistakable U.S. player in Macau is Las Vegas Sands (LVS), which is making boatloads of money as individuals herd to the locale to splurge. It as of late reported its final quarter results, which saw strong development in Macau. Also, its earnings came in front of the Street's expectations.

Digging deeper...

The organization's top line neglected to meet estimates essentially because of 8% lower revenue from operations in Singapore, checking in at $660 million. This was predominantly because of lower gaming revenue.

On the other hand, the organization witnessed improvements in lodging room rates as well as inhabitance room rates, which somewhat offset the revenue decline from the locale. Also, the Singapore economy shrunk by 2.7%, on an annualized basis, for the final quarter. The withdrawal was because of powerless assembling movement, prompting lower gaming revenue.

Las Vegas, which comprises 10% of aggregate revenue, witnessed 72% development in casino revenue and 21% development in nourishment and beverages; room revenue crept up a slight 5% over last year.

Additionally, Macau operations make up two-thirds of the organization's aggregate revenue. Actually, aggregate gaming revenue from the Macau locale hopped 24% over last year's quarter. Hence, Las Vegas Sands has been profiting from this area's development.

Also, there was an increase in inhabitance as well as normal day by day rates over last year. Consequently, Wynn Resorts plans to stretch in China by investing an alternate $1.5 billion in Everett. This is notwithstanding its new property in Cotai, which is required to open by 2016.

Past performance

Las Vegas Sands is the pioneer concerning past performance as contrasted with rivals such as MGM Resorts International (MGM) and Wynn Resorts. As contrasted with peers, Las Vegas Sands has given the highest returns to investors in the last five years.

A developing presence in the Macau locale has helped Las Vegas Sands perform well and please its investors. Also, an expansion into the mass business, pander to the white collar class populace, empowered the casino-bind operator to indulge a wide demographic. Indeed, revenue from its mass-market customers increased an incredible 58% over the final quarter of 2012 to $1.2 billion. Also, it has the largest extent of mass-business sector gamblers in Macau, as pointed out by an analyst at Morgan Stanley.

On the other hand, it has been endeavoring various efforts to pull in customers. For instance, Mlife, its customer-steadfastness system, is doing great and conveying the highest room revenue to the organization. This system rewards customers who use versatile innovation. Also, it has as of late dispatched another social amusement on Facebook, Myvegas, which will further help in gaining more customers. Henceforth, MGM is using such programs as limited time tools to drive its revenue.

Bounty to anticipate

Las Vegas Sands is also making various moves to extend its business and drive revenue higher. It has been adding inn rooms to suit more individuals. Also, sources of excitement such as show halls, theaters and shopping malls are continuously opened inside of its resorts. This should pull in more customers. In addition, there are plans to invest $2.8 billion in Cotai keeping in mind the end goal to fabricate a Parisian resort, which should be carried out by 2015.

Also, the casino-chain operator's sixth property in Macau is under construction, which once finished will add to its developing presence in the area. Truth be told, the organization has crossed out plans to manufacture Eurovegas in Spain, w

Monday, August 18, 2014

Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) Q2 Earnings Preview: Guidance to Power PLUG’s Direction

Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) will release the Company's 2014 second quarter results on August 14, 2014. before the market open.  On the same day, management will host a conference at 10:00 a.m. EDT to discuss these results.

Wall Street anticipates that the Fuel Cell company will lose -$0.04 for the quarter, which is $0.06 better than last year's loss of a dime per share. iStock expects Plug Power to beat Wall Street's consensus number; the iEstimate is -$0.03.

Sales, like earnings per share (EPS), are expected to increase, exploding 122.10% year-over-year (YoY). The consensus revenue estimate for Q2 is $16.65 million versus last year's $7.5 million. (Don't most NFL quarterback's make more money than that?)

[Related -Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) Q1 Earnings Preview: EPS Have Shocked Shares]

Plug Power Inc., an alternative energy technology provider, is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, and commercialization of fuel cell systems for the industrial off-road markets worldwide. It is focused on proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell and fuel processing technologies and fuel cell/battery hybrid technologies.

PLUG's reported EPS hugged the street's outlook four straight quarters, missing by a penny for the last three quarterly checkups and beating by a penny last year's Q2.   In fact, five of the last seven have been within a penny of the consensus with a two cent beat and six cent miss rounding the remainder.

[Related -Investing in Plug Power Inc. (PLUG)?]

Oddly, PLUG's price crashed -13.75% in the days surrounding the lone bullish surprise in the last year. In the last five-years, the alternative energy company posted eight bullish surprises in 20 opportunities. Shares lifted in the days surrounding four of the eight, but got whacked three of the last for better than expected results; dropping -13.75%, -8.4%, gaining 1.81% and losing -17.65% in the three days prior/after the profit news, from the most recent back.

Clearly, forward guidance is what drives PLUG's earnings-driven price sensitivity. On thus front, there are some pros and cons. There seems to be some momentum as Wal-Mart recently added to a fuel cell order, and UPS is experimenting with fuel cell powered delivery vans/trucks. On the other hand, cheap natural gas is making it difficult for fuel cells as an alternative.

Overall: The iEstimate and Plug Power Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PLUG) history suggest PLUG's earnings will hug the street's consensus; however, forward guidance will determine the stock's price swing. 

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Labor Market Data Upbeat, but Housing Starts Fall Sharply

Housing Starts Nati Harnik/AP WASHINGTON -- The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the labor market recovery was gaining traction. The economy's brightening outlook was dimmed somewhat by another report Thursday showing a tumble in housing starts and building permits last month. "This part of economy is going in the wrong direction while the rest of the economy is picking up," said Anthony Karydakis, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak in New York. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 302,000 for the week ended July 12, the Labor Department said. Economists had forecast first-time applications for jobless aid rising to 310,000. The four-weak average of claims, considered a better gauge of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, hit its lowest level in seven years. Prices for U.S. Treasury debt extended gains after the data, while U.S. stock index futures held losses. The claims data covered the survey week for July nonfarm payrolls. Claims fell 12,000 between the June and July survey period, suggesting another month of solid job gains after June's hefty 288,000 increase. Employment has grown by more than 200,000 jobs in each of the last five months, a stretch not seen since the late 1990s.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Beazer Homes: 8 Different Insiders Have Purchased Shares This Month

1 The Company

One homebuilder has seen intensive insider buying during the last 30 days. Intensive insider buying can be defined by the following three criteria:

The stock is purchased by three or more insiders within one month.

The stock is sold by no insiders in the month of intensive purchasing.

At least two purchasers increase their holdings by more than 10%.

Beazer Homes USA (BZH) designs, builds, and sells single-family and multi-family homes in the United States.

Shares outstanding

26.4 million

Share price

$16.84

Market cap

$445.0 million

Enterprise value

$1.8 billion

P/S

0.3

Ticker

BZH

chart.ashx.png

1.1 History

In 1696 George Beazer established the family trade in England. Beazer Homes moved to the U.S. in 1986. In March 1994 Beazer Homes had its initial public offering.

nimetön.png

(Source: Beazer Homes)

1.2 Business Model

The company's homes are designed to appeal to homeowners at various price points across various demographic segments and are generally offered for sale in advance of their construction. Beazer Homes' objective is to provide its customers with homes that incorporate exceptional value and quality while seeking to maximize the company's return on invested capital over the course of a housing cycle.

2 Management

The CEO Allan Merrill has more than 20 years of industry experience. Allan Merrill has been CEO since January 2011.

Brian Beazer is the Chairman of the company. Mr. Beazer has been in the homebuilding and construction industry worldwide for over 50 years.

2.1 Insider Ownership

Beazer Homes' directors and executive officers own 3.0% of the company.

Here is a table of Beazer Homes' insider activity during the last 30 days.

Name

Title

Trade Date

Shares Purchased

Current Ownership

Increase InShares

Elizabeth Acton

Director

Aug 5

1,000

10,560 shares

+10.5%

Stephen Zelnak

Director

Aug 4

10,000

46,017 shares

+27.8%

Laurent Alpert

Director

Aug 4

2,500

20,340 shares

+14.0%

Norma Provencio

Director

Aug 1

3,000

18,240 shares

+19.7%

Allan Merrill

CEO

Aug 1

10,000

179,941 shares

+5.9%

Kenneth Khoury

EVP

Aug 1

4,672

67,390 shares

+7.4%

Robert Salomon

CFO

Aug 1

7,000

53,462 shares

+15.1%

Brian Beazer

Chairman

Aug 1

10,000

63,425 shares

+18.7%

There have been 47,172 shares purchased by insiders during the last 30 days. Six of these eight insiders increased their holdings by more than 10%.

Here is a table of Beazer Homes' insider activity by calendar month.

Insider buying / shares

Insider selling / shares

August 2014

48,172

0

July 2014

0

0

June 2014

17,000

0

May 2014

0

0

April 2014

0

0

March 2014

0

0

February 2014

0

0

January 2014

0

0

December 2013

0

0

November 2013

0

0

October 2013

0

0

September 2013

0

0

August 2013

0

0

July 2013

0

0

June 2013

0

0

May 2013

0

0

April 2013

0

0

March 2013

0

0

February 2013

0

0

January 2013

0

0

There have been 65,172 shares purchased and there have been zero shares sold by insiders since January 2013.

2.2 Compensation

Here is a table of the management's compensation during the last three years.

nimetön.png

(Source: Proxy Statement)

The management's total compensation was highest in 2012.

3 Operating Summary

Here is a table of Beazer Homes' number of homes closed and average closing prices.

Fiscal Year

Number of Homes Closed (Continuing Operations)

Average Closing Price ($ in thousands)

2004

16,451

232.2

2005

18,109

271.3

2006

18,361

285.7

2007

12,020

277.4

2008

6,370

254.3

2009

4,196

230.8

2010

4,513

221.7

2011

3,249

219.4

2012

4,428

224.9

2013

5,056

253.0

The number of homes closed and the average closing prices have been trending higher since 2011.

4 Financial Summary

4.1 Current Situation

Beazer Homes reported the fiscal 2014 third-quarter, which ended June 30, financial results on July 31 with the following highlights:

Revenue

$354.7 million

Net loss

$12.4 million

Cash

$206.5 million

Debt

$1.5 billion

Backlog

$663.2 million

nimetön.png

(Source: Investor presentation)

The revenue grew 12.8% in the quarter compared to the prior year. Beazer Homes posted net income excluding refinancing charge of $6.6 million.

4.2 Historical Developments

Here is a table of Beazer Homes' revenue and earnings since 2004.

Fiscal Year

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Revenue ($ in billions)

3.9

5.0

5.4

3.5

1.7

1.0

1.0

0.7

1.0

1.3

Net income / loss ($ in millions)

+235.8

+275.9

+368.8

-411.1

-951.9

-189.4

-34.0

-204.9

-145.3

-33.9

EPS (diluted)

+29.54

+29.35

+42.20

-53.50

-123.45

-24.50

-2.85

-13.84

-7.87

-1.37

(Note: Beazer Homes had an 1-for-5 reverse stock split on October 11, 2012, and a 3-for-1 split on March 22, 2005. The EPS numbers have been adjusted accordingly.)

The revenue has been growing since 2011 and also the net losses have been trending lower since 2011.

5 Shares

Here is a table of Beazer Homes' number of shares since 2004.

Year

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Number of shares (basic) (in millions)

8.3

8.1

8.0

7.7

7.7

7.7

12.0

14.8

18.5

24.7

Number of shares (diluted) (millions)

8.5

9.1

8.9

7.7

7.7

7.7

12.0

14.8

18.5

24.7

(Note: Beazer Homes had an 1-for-5 reverse stock split on October 11, 2012, and a 3-for-1 split on March 22, 2005. The number of shares have been adjusted accordingly.)

Beazer Homes' number of shares (diluted) have grown 191% since 2004.

6 Outlook

Beazer Homes expects its full-year GAAP net income to be above $30 million.

nimetön.png

(Source: Investor presentation)

7 Competition

Beazer Homes' competitors include KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN), and PulteGroup (PHM). Here is a table comparing these companies.

Company

BZH

KBH

LEN

PHM

Market Cap:

442.59M

1.51B

7.47B

6.75B

Employees:

878

1,430

5,741

3,843

Qtrly Rev Growth (yoy):

0.13

0.08

0.28

0.01

Revenue:

1.36B

2.18B

6.70B

5.64B

Gross Margin:

0.19

0.19

0.23

0.23

EBITDA:

70.80M

141.68M

817.54M

632.90M

Operating Margin:

0.04

0.06

0.12

0.11

Net Income:

-14.04M

92.37M

493.79M

2.60B

EPS:

-0.28

0.69

2.23

6.71

P/E:

N/A

23.75

16.38

2.67

PEG (5 yr expected):

18.58

1.89

1.51

2.00

P/S:

0.32

0.68

1.10

1.17

Beazer Homes has the lowest P/S ratio among these four companies.

8 Valuation

Beazer Homes will have a book value above $20 per share after the removal of the valuation allowance on the company's Deferred Tax Assets.

Allan Merrill commented on the most recent earnings call:

"Finally, once we remove the valuation allowance on our DTA, which we expect to begin doing during fiscal 2015, we'll have the book value above $20 a share. With our earnings potential it seems illogical to me that we would be the only builder to trade below book value."

9 Risks

The homebuilding industry is cyclical. A severe downturn in the industry, as recently experienced, could adversely affect Beazer Homes' business, results of operations and stockholders' equity.

10 Conclusion

There have been eight different insiders buying Beazer Homes and there have not been any insiders selling Beazer Homes this month. The eight insiders purchased their shares at prices ranging from $15.97 to $16.82. I believe Beazer Homes could be a good pick below $16.82 based on the intensive insider buying.

nimetön.png

(Source: Investor presentation)

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned.

About the author:maarnioI have 15 years of investing experience. I have traded stocks, commodities and Forex markets.
Currently 0.00/51234

Friday, August 8, 2014

Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Suffers Another Setback

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The day started off with strong employment indicators getting overshadowed by a Russian strike against Western sanctions. That set the tone for a choppy trading session Thursday. The S&P 500 suffered a setback of about 4% from its recent high. A 5% correction would then take the index down about another 16 points to 1,893.

The S&P 500 gave up 0.56% to 1,909.57. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.46% to 16,368.27. The Nasdaq fell 0.46% to 4,334.97. The vast majority of broad market sectors were weak. Down over 1%, health care was the biggest loser, followed by consumer discretionary, basic materials, and energy.

Read More: Will Gold's Recent Rally Last -- or Will It Evaporate?

"We've entered a whole new level of geopolitical concerns that's creating growth worries for investors who would rather sell U.S. stocks today and ask questions later," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers. Wall Street's upbeat start was supported by a downtrend in U.S. jobless claims. But the mood quickly soured after Russia retaliated against Western trade sanctions by threatening to ban imports of food and agricultural products from Europe and the U.S. Pressures on the market intensified on news that President Obama was considering airstrikes against violent militants in Iraq who were targeting religious minorities. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said in a post-ECB press conference that geopolitical risks to the eurozone economy were rising and that the West's strained relations with Russia over Ukraine remains an area of uncertainty for the fragile eurozone economy. CBS (CBS) was flat at $56.91 in after-hours trading after reporting a profit of $439 million, or 76 cents per share, down from $472 million one year ago, but beating analysts' estimates of 72 cents per share. Zynga (ZNGA) was dropping more than 7% to $2.71 after missing analysts' estimates for revenue in the second quarter. Read More: Time Warner vs. 21st Century Fox: What Wall Street's Saying 21st Century Fox (FOXA) reported on Wednesday better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings a day after it called off its pursuit of rival media giant Time Warner (TWX). Shares of Fox surged 5.04% to $33.96. Shares of Netflix (NFLX) were up 4.5% to $449.67 after it was reported that CEO Reed Hastings posted on Facebook (FB) that the company has beat Time Warner's HBO in subscriber revenue in the second quarter, adding that Netflix was "honored to be in the same league," according to CNBC. Time Warner shares were down 2.94% to $72.06. Read More: Aug. 7 Premarket Briefing: 10 Things You Should Know --By Andrea Tse in New York Follow @AndreaTTse

Monday, August 4, 2014

Lego cashes in on sexism critiques

How LEGO builds toys kids want   How LEGO builds toys kids want NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Lego sure knows how to cash in on criticism.

Seven year old Charlotte Benjamin penned a letter that went viral in January, criticizing the company for the lack of professional female Legos.

This month, the toy manufacturer rolled out a new set called the Research Institute created by female geophysicist, Ellen Kooijman.

The set, which costs $20, features three female scientists -- one paleontologist, one astronomer, and one chemist.

It seems to address many of Charlotte's concerns.

"All the girls did was sit at home, go to the beach, and shop, and they had no jobs but the boys went on adventures, worked, saved people, and had jobs, even swam with sharks," she wrote. " I want you to make more Lego girl people and let them go on adventures and have fun ok!?! Thank you."

The set launched on August 1 and was sold out on Lego's website by Monday. The company wouldn't say how many of the sets it's sold so far, but a spokesman said it was "produced in a limited number for select retailers." It's also for sale in Lego store and at Legoland amusement parks and discovery centers in the US and Canada.

This isn't Lego's first attempt to go after the female market -- it introduced Lego Friends in December 2011, targeted specifically to girls. Those sets feature everything from a bakery to a pet salon and a juice bar.

But there's a real shortage of women in science and technology fields. According to Girls Who Code, an organization devoted to bridging the computer science skills gender gap, women earn a mere 12 percent of computer science degrees. That's down from 1984, when the figure stood at 37 percent.

"Studies show that girls in adolescence start to lose their confidence," said Nathalie Molina Niño, co-founder of Entrepreneurs@Athena, a Barnard College initiative for women entrepreneurs. "That means...you have to catch them before then."