Saturday, June 30, 2012

Your Mailing Business Should Be A Success, Not A Bust

When you undertake a postcard mailing project, the projected returns should be enough to recover your mailing expenses, plus some. It is obvious that if you were not going to profit from the mailing, you wouldn’t send it out.

A little less obvious is that it costs almost the same amount of money to send out a very attractive mailing piece with brilliant copy which is more likely to produce a great response rate as it does to send out a boring, poorly designed piece guaranteed only to land rapidly in the trash. Why?

The major part of your expenditure is in the mailing list and the postage. You printing cost will not be based on the beauty or mediocrity of the postcards. So a good design and excellent copy is going to cost a little bit more, but only a little. You send out a postcard mailing to get a response (preferably lots of responses).

The front’s details and tags are supposed to rouse the curiosity of the readers so that they will want to know what is inside. In other words, the intent is to arouse his interest. The copy on the front and back of the card is designed to get the reader to respond, either by calling you or e-mailing you or visiting you or going to your web site. An answer. If your card accomplishes that, it’s done its duty.

What’s the secret to doing that? Superior concept. A great presentation. On the condition that you have reached prospective buyers of your products or services. Offering sun protection products to Eskimos for example would be an exercise in futility. They are the wrong audience.

If your promotion is a long range project, then you would be better off to hire experts instead wasting your time in learning the ropes. A little time spent improving the design and copy of your postcards will result in much higher ROI for your postcard mailing.

Turn to Father and Son when you need replacement door Palmyra.

Merger Arbitrage Mondays: May 7, 2012

Merger activity spiked sharply higher with thirteen new deals announced and six closing. Four of the new deals announced are over a billion dollars. We have not seen such frenzied activity since we started reporting on mergers more than two years ago. One of the deals that is not included below is the $792 million takeover offer for satellite imaging products company DigitalGlobe (DGI) by rival GeoEye (GEOY), which was rejected by the board on Sunday. We mentioned insider purchases of GeoEye by private equity fund Cerberus Capital Management in one of our Insider Weekends series of posts.

You can find all the active deals listed below in our Merger Arbitrage Tool that automatically updates itself during market hours.

Deal Statistics:

Total Number of Deals Closed in 2012 58
Total Number of Pending Deals
Cash Deals 41
Stock Deals 10
Stock & Cash Deals 7
Total Number of Pending Deals 58
Total Deal Size $382.18 billion

New Deals:

  • The acquisition of Sunoco (SUN) by Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) for $5.3 billion in a cash plus stock deal. Under the terms of the transaction, shareholders of Sunoco can either receive $50 in cash, 1.0490 ETP common unit or a combination of $25 in cash and 0.5245 ETP common units for each Sunoco share.
  • The acquisition of Books-A-Million (BAMM) by The Anderson Family for $48.8 million or $3.05 per share in cash.* Since the Anderson family already owns 53% of the company and Clyde Anderson is the Chairman of the Board, this is essentially a “going private” transaction. The deal has not yet been approved by the board and hence we have not yet included it in the list of pending deals below or in our merger arbitrage spread tool.
  • The acquisition of Gen-Probe (GPRO) by Hologic (HOLX) for $3.7 billion or $82.75 per share in cash.
  • The acquisition of PLX Technology (PLXT) by Integrated Device Technology (IDTI) for $330 million in a cash plus stock deal. Under the terms of the agreement, shareholders of PLX Technology will receive $3.50 in cash and 0.525 shares of IDT common stock for each PLX common share outstanding.
  • The acquisition of Imperial Sugar (IPSU) by Louis Dreyfus Commodities LLC for $203 million or $6.35 per share in cash.
  • The acquisition of P.F. Chang’s China Bistro (PFCB) by Centerbridge Partners LP for $1.09 billion or $51.50 per share in cash.
  • The acquisition of Collective Brands (PSS) by a consortium comprised of Wolverine Worldwide (WWW), Blum Capital Partners and Golden Gate Capital for $2 billion or $21.75 per share in cash.
  • The acquisition of Central Bancorp (CEBK) by Independent Bank Corp (INDB) for $54.8 million or $32.00 per share in cash. According to the press release, “Under the terms of the agreement, 60% of outstanding Central Bancorp., Inc. shares will be exchanged for shares of Independent Bank Corp., at an exchange ratio subject to limited adjustment, and 40% of outstanding Central Bancorp., Inc. shares will be purchased for $32.00 per share in cash.” Since the exchange ratio is subject to adjustment, we are going to treat this as an all cash deal in our arbitrage tool.
  • The acquisition of EasyLink Services International Corporation (ESIC) by Open Text Corp (OTEX) for $232 million or $7.25 per share in cash.
  • The acquisition of Charming Shoppes (CHRS) by Ascena Retail Group (ASNA) for $890 million or $7.35 per share in cash.
  • The acquisition of Standard Microsystems Corporation (SMSC) by Microchip Technology (MCHP) for $939 million or $37.00 per share in cash.
  • The acquisition of Kensey Nash Corporation (KNSY) by Royal DSM for $38.50 per share in cash.
  • The acquisition of Alliance Bankshares Corporation (ABVA) by Washington First Bankshares (WFBI.OB) for $24.4 million in a cash plus stock deal. Under the terms of the agreement, shareholders of Alliance Bankshares Corporation will receive, at their election, either 0.4435 shares of WFBI common stock or cash in the amount of $5.30 for each share of Alliance common stock owned, provided that no more than 20% of the Alliance common shares may elect to receive cash.
  • Updated Deals:

  • On May 1, 2012, shares of Pep Boys (PBY) fell 25% to $11 after the company reported that the Gores Group is trying to delay the deal following a drop in Pep Boys sales.
  • Closed Deals:

  • The acquisition of Midas (MDS) by TBC Corporation on April 30, 2012.
  • The acquisition of RSC Holdings (RRR) by United Rentals (URI) on April 30, 2012.
  • The acquisition of LoopNet (LOOP) by CoStar Group (CSGP) on May 01, 2012.
  • The acquisition of Harleysville Group Inc. (HGIC) by Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company on May 01, 2012.
  • The acquisition of Convio (CNVO) by Blackbaud (BLKB) on May 03, 2012.
  • The acquisition of Great Wolf Resorts, Inc. (WOLF) by an affiliate of Apollo Global Management, LLC on May 04, 2012.
  • Top 10 deals with largest spreads:

    Symbol Announced

    Date

    Acquiring

    Company

    Closing

    Price

    Last

    Price

    Closing

    Date

    Profit Annualized

    Profit

    PBY 01/30/2012 The Gores Group (N/A) $15.00 $11.19 06/30/2012 34.05% 230.14%
    CADC 10/24/2011 Novel Gain Holdings Limited (N/A) $2.65 $2.12 06/30/2012 25.00% 168.98%
    VQ 01/16/2012 Denver Parent Corporation (N/A) $12.50 $10.83 06/30/2012 15.42% 104.23%
    GEOI 04/25/2012 Halcon Resources (HK) $38.84 $35.92 09/30/2012 8.12% 20.30%
    INCB 01/25/2012 Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) $23.48 $21.75 06/30/2012 7.97% 53.89%
    TUDO 03/12/2012 Youku Inc. (YOKU) $38.31 $36.01 09/30/2012 6.39% 15.98%
    CEBK 05/01/2012 Independent Bank Corp. (INDB) $32.00 $30.27 12/31/2012 5.72% 8.76%
    ABVA 05/03/2012 Washington First Bankshares (WFBI.OB) $4.77 $4.51 12/31/2012 5.71% 8.76%
    TAM 01/19/2011 LAN Airlines S.A. (LFL) $25.08 $24.21 06/30/2012 3.61% 24.37%
    SCMF 03/27/2012 Capital Bank Financial Corp (N/A) $2.88 $2.78 06/30/2012 3.60% 24.31%

    List of all pending deals:

    Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust Goes Negative

    Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust (NYSE: RPT  ) reported earnings on Feb. 14. Here are the numbers you need to know.

    The 10-second takeaway
    For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust beat expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

    Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue increased and GAAP earnings per share contracted to a loss.

    Gross margins dropped, operating margins grew, net margins dropped.

    Revenue details
    Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust tallied revenue of $32.0 million. The four analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ hoped for revenue of $29.6 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 4.1% higher than the prior-year quarter's $29.2 million.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

    EPS details
    Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.09. The one earnings estimate compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.07 per share on the same basis. GAAP EPS were -$0.99 for Q3 against $0.23 per share for the prior-year quarter.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

    Margin details
    For the quarter, gross margin was 66.5%, 210 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 21.2%, 370 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -122.2%, 15,070 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

    Looking ahead
    Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $30.6 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is -$0.28.

    Next year's average estimate for revenue is $120.8 million. The average EPS estimate is -$0.28.

    Investor sentiment
    The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 45 members out of 53 rating the stock outperform, and eight members rating it underperform. Among 24 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 23 give Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust a green thumbs-up, and one gives it a red thumbs-down.

    Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust is hold, with an average price target of $11.71.

    Can your portfolio provide you with enough income to last through retirement? You'll need more than Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust. Learn how to maximize your investment income and "Secure Your Future With 11 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks." Click here for instant access to this free report.

    • Add Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust to My Watchlist.

    This Just In: Upgrades and Downgrades

    At The Motley Fool, we poke plenty of fun at Wall Street analysts and their endless cycle of upgrades, downgrades, and "initiating coverage at neutral." Today, we'll show you whether those bigwigs actually know what they're talking about. To help, we've enlisted Motley Fool CAPS to track the long-term performance of Wall Street's best and worst.

    And speaking of the best ...
    ... did you hear about Oppenheimer's VMware (NYSE: VMW  ) upgrade? Once one of Wall Street's better performers, Oppenheimer ran into some difficulties in 2011, as pick after pick began to lag the market. Today, Oppy may not be the worst analyst we track, but it's no longer anywhere near the best. In fact, at last report Oppy was ranked just above the 50% mark for analysts we track on CAPS.

    Yet heedless of its impaired record, the analyst clambered way out on a limb yesterday to urge that investors buy VMware. According to Oppy, you see, VMware shares will hit a nice, round $100 share price by the end of next year -- a near 20% gain from today's prices. But is that likely? Could VMware be the pick that helps Oppenheimer restore its reputation as a great stock picker?

    Growth is good ...�
    Oppenheimer isn't alone in expecting big things from VMware in 2012. On average, Street analysts predict that the company will earn $2.51 per share, or about 17% growth from 2011 levels. By way of comparison, that's close to twice the growth rate predicted for rival IT giants such as Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) or Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) -- where 2012 earnings growth is estimated at roughly 10%, or Citrix Systems (Nasdaq: CTXS  ) . And this story gets even better, the further on you read.

    According to StreetInsider.com, Oppenheimer thinks VMware has the potential to grow its revenues 20% per year. Add in a bit of margin expansion, and the consensus on Wall Street is that VMware might deliver long-term earnings growth in excess of 26%.

    The company's "strong secular growth drivers" and "high growth markets," explains Oppenheimer, are key to its argument that now's the time to buy the stock. Just as key, though, are VMware's "strong cash flows," "solid fundamentals," and "reasonable valuation."

    I agree.

    Growth is good ... but cheap is better
    At 56 times earnings, VMware looks pretty expensive, I admit. But consider: At last report, VMware was generating free cash flow at a rate more than 130% as great as its reported GAAP earnings. With $1.5 billion in such "cash profits" generated over the past year, the company sells for a price-to-FCF ratio of just 23.5, which is less than half its apparent P/E.

    Oppenheimer's also right about the company's "solid fundamentals." If you factor in the more than $3.5 billion in net cash on VMware's balance sheet, the resulting enterprise value-to-FCF ratio works out to just over 21. And again, this price will buy you a stock growing at well over 26% per year.

    Foolish takeaway
    Earlier this year, I publicly endorsed VMware parent company EMC (NYSE: EMC  ) as offering one of the most compelling tech bargains in the world, and a better deal than Citrix, VMware, or fellow tech darling salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM  ) for that matter.

    I stand by that conclusion. At an enterprise value just 10 times annual free cash flow, and 17% growth, EMC remains my favorite stock in this sector. But don't let that scare you away from higher-growth VMware. It's a bargain in its own right -- just not as good a bargain as EMC.

    EMC might look like a bargain, but if you're looking for more investing ideas as we turn the corner to 2012, take a copy of our new free report, "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2012." It features a company that our experts think has plenty of prosperity ahead but is still being overlooked by the market. Thousands have already requested access, and it'll be available for only a limited time. Get your copy --�it's free.

    Stocks at a Precipice, Proceed With Caution

    So, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez is offering to mediate some kind of peace for Muammar Qaddafi and Libya. That's a bit like Ben Bernanke offering up a plan to fight inflation.

    Stocks rallied on the news and oil prices are dropping. Gold is even looking to reverse course.

    Now, it's still early in the day. We've seen stocks reverse early gains and trade lower recently. But the strong early reaction to this news would seem to suggest that stocks want to push higher.

    I know, it sounds like a flimsy excuse to take stocks higher, and gold and oil lower. It's hard to imagine that any settlement in Libya that doesn't remove Qaddafi would pacify Libyan rebels. It wouldn't do much to discourage unrest in Iran, or elsewhere. And it certainly doesn't affect the underlying inflation concerns.

    Food and energy prices were rising long before the protests began in the Middle East.

    But then, we have to wonder if the correction that began on February 22 was a fundamental event, or was it purely technical. In other words, did the selling begin because of underlying weakness in the economy? Or did investors simply decide that it was time to take profits?

    There's plenty of reason to think that investors simply decided to start taking profits. The rally for stocks has now lasted twice as long as the average move has, before a 5% correction. The S&P 500 has doubled since the March 2009 lows. We could go on and on with the technical reasons that stocks are overbought.

    And the same is true for the fundamentals. Inflation is rising, especially in emerging markets, and that may mean less spending and lower corporate profits. Interest rates may be poised to rise, and austerity measures from Congress could mean slower improvement for unemployment, GDP growth and spending.

    We might also ask if it even matters if stocks sell off for technical or fundamental reasons. I think it does. Because the distinction is helps us decide if we are looking to buy a dip, or take profits and stand aside for a while.

    Jason Cimpl, the trading strategist for TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts wrote a great pre-market piece for his members today, and I can't help quoting a bit from it...

    While it's advisable to stay with the trend as long as you can, sometimes that could result in buying at a top or selling at a bottom. Stop losses can prevent large defeats, but nothing can prevent the shake-out volatility corresponding to market reversals. The fact is that we are all slaves to the market's direction. And while certain trades can fight the trend, 75% of them will move in the same direction of the market. And sometimes that direction is sideways or down.

    For now, we have a clear bullish trend. But as mentioned before, it is long overdue to correct. We will continue to favor buyers, but all the while understand that we may have a few losers as the market turns.

    I should point out that Jason runs a trading service and his holding period for positions is between a couple days to a couple months. He doesn't try to ride losers out, but instead takes losses quickly and moves on. Jason's done a remarkable job sticking with bullish trend that started in late August, knocking down gains like 40% on CCME, 50% on ALJ and 55% on HILL.

    In fact, he called that rally so perfectly, I chided him into doing a video seminar to show us how he did it. That video, which we like to call a "webinar" airs March 4, at 6 pm ET.

    Jason is clearly telling us that he's not looking for more upside right away. But with that said, stocks can work out of overbought territory with a sideways move, as well as with a downside move. Still let's be aware that, right now, stocks appear to be reacting to news in an almost whimsical way, which means caution is absolutely the right way to proceed. So we should be hesitant to jump on rallies, and equally skeptical about sell-offs, at least until we see some support/resistance levels fall. For those of you trading at home, those levels on the S&P 500 are 1,335 for resistance and 1,300 for support. I can tell you, too, that Jason is expecting a move to secondary support on the S&P 500 at 1,280.

    One thing I'll be watching is semiconductor stocks. We've discussed the virtuous cycle that's been in place since Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) released it's iPad tablet. People love the tablets. Motorola (NYSE:MMI) just released its XOOM tablet and Apple released iPad 2 yesterday.

    Strong tablet (and smartphone) sales are pushing new chip designs, increased wireless subscribers for carriers, higher data traffic and wireless app sales. So pay attention to chip stocks like Qualcomm (Nasdaq:QCOM) and Nvidia (Nasdaq:NVDA), carriers like Verizon (NYSE:VZ), data traffic companies like Akamai (Nasdaq:AKAM) and F5 Networks (Nasdaq:FFIV) and wireless app companies like NetFlix (Nasdaq:NFLX).

    These stocks have sold off lately, even though the whole wireless tablet/smartphone market is really in its infancy. Apple's iPad2 release should push all these stocks higher. If it doesn't, that will tell us a lot about the bullish/bearish bias of investors.

    5-Star Stocks Poised to Pop: Black Diamond

    Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, outdoor-sports equipment specialist Black Diamond (Nasdaq: BDE  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

    With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Black Diamond's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

    Black Diamond facts

    Headquarters Salt Lake City, Utah
    Market Cap $300.7 million
    Industry Leisure products
    Trailing-12-Month Revenue $153.1 million
    Management Co-Founder/CEO Peter Metcalf
    CFO Robert Peay
    Trailing-12-Month Return on Equity 3.1%
    Cash/Debt $41.6 million / $15.9 million
    Competitors L.L. Bean
    Patagonia
    Recreational Equipment

    Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

    On CAPS, all 17 of the members who have rated Black Diamond believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward. �

    Earlier this year , one of those Fools, mitleg, succinctly summed up the bull case for our community:

    Quality gear in a segment without a ton of competition (i.e. climbing). More competition in skiing. I like their move and hires for an apparel line. That is a crowded field, but I think they can do it well. Fast growing, with much potential.

    If you want market-topping returns, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Owning exceptional stocks is a surefire way to secure your financial future. Of course, despite a strong five-star rating, Black Diamond may not be your top choice.

    If that's the case, we've compiled a special free report for investors called "Discover the Next Rule-Breaking Multibagger," which uncovers another small-cap growth play with big potential. The report is 100% free, but it won't be around forever, so click here to access it now.

    Want to see how well (or not so well) the stocks in this series are performing? Follow the new TrackPoisedTo CAPS account.

    Why I'm STILL Holding on to This Stock

    It was bound to happen. When I first began looking at stocks to add to my $100,000 Real-Money Portfolio, I knew I'd eventually come to a crossroads where I might have a holding that didn't quite turn out how I'd hoped (or at least not yet), and I'd be faced with the crucial decision of whether to hold my ground or sell.

    Take a look at my $100,000 Portfolio below. Based on this snapshot, everything looks pretty good -- but there's one key holding that I want to focus on today, mainly because it's taking a beating in today's trading session. When I added Exide Technologies (Nasdaq: XIDE) to my $100,000 Portfolio last week, I classified this pick has having ample risk along with potentially strong upside. As I wrote back then, "for stocks like this, it's often best to wait for a tangible improvement in business conditions." But I added that "the market is not cooperating with that plan. Shares of Exide are starting to percolate, recently moving across the $3.50 mark, which is likely a sign that a combination of cost cuts and price increases will enable Exide to get back on track in coming quarters. If I wait for confirmation of such a trend, then this stock could already be above $4 by the time that happens." Well, that bullish trading action now appears to be the result of buying in hopes that Exide would announce that business is getting better. Instead, just-released quarterly results show that business remains in a funk. Despite a sharp blow to shares in Friday trading, I am standing pat on my current 1,500 share position. It could have been worse Exide's fiscal third quarter results were not disastrous. Sales of $784 million were roughly $20 million below the consensus forecast. And while the company earned just $0.06 a share in the quarter -- below the $0.20 consensus -- it still marks a return to profitability after three straight money-losing quarters. The mild winter in the United States led to a drop in the typical pattern of replacement battery purchases, and Exide likely would have exceeded sales forecasts and come much closer to consensus EPS forecasts had winter weather been more typical. Still, the December and March quarters are typically Exide's strongest -- due to cold weather -- and the company is likely to miss March quarter estimates as well for that same reason. Equally important: The subpar quarter doesn't raise further concern about deep distress on the balance sheet. Exide still has $100 million in cash and another $150 million on its untapped credit line. Management predicts a fairly robust level of free cash flow generation in the current quarter. As long as business doesn't weaken even further from current already-weak levels, then Exide's debt-laden balance sheet shouldn't lead to financial distress. To be sure, shares are likely to languish in the near-term, as it's hard to spot imminent catalysts. Yet for long-term investors, this remains a very inexpensive stock in relation to potential cash flow generation in coming years. Risks to Consider: Exide's balance sheet isn't of deep concern right now, but liquidity concerns would arise within a few quarters if business materially worsened. Tips>> If you held off purchasing shares of Exide before, there's no reason to jump in right now. The prospect of a still-mild winter could cause shares to stay stuck in the $3 range in the months to come. Conversely, if you do own shares, sitting tight may be your best option, as quarterly results don't represent deepening troubles to come. I'll take a closer look at business trends in coming weeks and months in hopes of more accurately anticipating the eventual operational upturn that I still suspect Exide is capable. But for now, I'm standing pat with my position until further notice. [Note: When one of the companies in my portfolio reports important news, you'll want to stay on top of it. That's why I'm offering readers the chance to automatically have these updates sent to their email inboxes as soon as their published. Remember, my $100,000 Portfolio is completely free -- but only for a limited time.

    Tower Group Earnings Preview

    Tower Group (Nasdaq: TWGP  ) came in under analysts' estimates last quarter, but now have a chance to fix things this quarter. The company will unveil its latest earnings on Monday, Feb. 27. Tower Group, through its subsidiaries, offers property and casualty insurance products, as well as other insurance services and products.

    What analysts say:

    • Buy, sell, or hold?: Analysts think investors should stand pat on Tower Group, with three out of five analysts rating it a hold. Though analysts still rate the stock a hold, they are a bit more wary about it compared to three months ago.
    • Revenue forecasts: On average, analysts predict $417.3 million in revenue this quarter. That would represent a rise of 11.9% from the year-ago quarter.
    • Wall Street earnings expectations: The average analyst estimate is earnings of $0.64 per share. Estimates range from $0.62 to $0.66.

    What our community says:
    CAPS All-Stars are strongly supporting the stock, with 98.5% awarding it an outperform rating. The greater community is in line with the All-Stars, as 97.5% give it a rating of outperform. Tower Group has a bullish CAPS rating of five out of five stars that is about on par with the Fool community assessment.

    Management:
    Revenue has now gone up for three straight quarters.

    Now let's get some insight into how efficient management is at running the business. Margins illustrate how efficiently a company captures portions of sales dollars. Tower Group saw a decrease in its net margins in the last two quarters year over year. Net margins reflect what percentage of each dollar earned by the company becomes profit. Here is how Tower Group has been doing for the last four quarters:

    Quarter

    Q3

    Q2

    Q1

    Q4

    Net Margin

    (3.6%)

    5.5%

    6.0%

    9.2%

    For all our Tower Group-specific analysis, including earnings and beyond, add Tower Group to My Watchlist.

    Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

    Earnings estimates provided by Zacks.

    JPM “$2 Billion” Loss Keeps Growing: Report

    Once the entire market knew that JPMorgan Chase (JPM) had a huge problematic position it would need to unwind, it seemed inevitable that the bank’s loss on that position would continue to grow.

    Well, voil�.

    Apparently, the loss has grown by at least 50%, according to the New York Times, which says that hedge funds have pounced on the weakened bank. The Times also notes that the bank could still report a profit for the quarter if the losses double.

    The fallout from the trading loss, disclosed by CEO Jamie Dimon last Thursday, continues to grow, as the SEC and FBI are both reportedly reviewing the bank’s actions.

    JPM is down 2.3% in midday trading, with competitors trading slightly in positive territory.

    SM: How to Capitalize on Public Works...

    Also See
    • Profiting From Stock Buybacks
    • Paying More for Dividends
    • The Top 100 Mutual Funds

    To hear debt-weary politicians in the U.S. and Europe tell it, the budget ax is being sharpened, and dramatic cuts in public spending are on the way -- all of which could be bad news for companies involved in projects to build or operate roads, ports and bridges, among other things.

    But analysts say that's not quite the case. Indeed, dig deeper into the global to-do list and it looks like, rather than using an ax, political leaders will need to keep reaching for picks and shovels. Just to keep pace with the world's growing population, governments and the private sector will have to spend at least $53 trillion on transportation, telecom, energy and other infrastructure projects by 2030, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a policy forum whose members include 34 nations. That means spending about what Germany generates in economic activity every year for 18 years, on everything from power grids in Latin America and China to natural gas pipelines in the U.S. For the companies involved in these projects, that spells long-term opportunity, says Michael Avery, who has devoted about a quarter of the $25 billion Ivy Asset Strategy fund he comanages to infrastructure-related stocks. Avery is hardly alone. The number of funds specializing in infrastructure-related plays has doubled since 2008, to 35 -- with investors pouring about $700 million into the group over the past year.

    Smart Picks

    The following companies are poised to benefit from infrastructure projects around the globe, experts say.

    Enbridge (ENB)

    The Canadian firm operates gas and oil pipelines in the U.S. and Canada, and should benefit from both oil discoveries in North Dakota and the natural gas boom nationwide, says Gary Anderson, comanager of the Scout International fund. Enbridge has also boosted its dividend for 15 consecutive years.

    Hutchison Whampoa (HUWHY)

    The Hong Kong conglomerate operates ports in 26 countries, including deep-sea, coastal and river ports in China and stands to benefit as China's western provinces develop. The shares are cheap as well, trading at two-thirds the value of its assets, says Michael Avery, comanager of the Ivy Asset Strategy fund.

    Cemig (CIG)

    Brazilian utility Companhia Energ tica de Minas Gerais, or Cemig, trades at eight times earnings about half what comparable but slower-growing U.S.-based utilities trade

    at, says Forward Global Infrastructure fund manager Aaron Visse. Plus, Brazil's government has promised an upgrade of its power grid.

    ABB (ABB)

    Executives of the Swiss company, whose power businesses benefit from both urbanization and the shift to more energy efficiency, told analysts they want ABB's profits to grow at twice the rate of global economic growth through 2015. That said, ABB's business is strongly affected by the ups and downs of the global economy, analysts say.

    Abertis Infraestructuras (ABE.MC)

    The Spanish firm manages toll roads, airports and telecom systems in 15 countries. Executives told analysts last fall they expected the company's profitability to improve in all of its businesses despite the economic downturn. In the interim, it has generated relatively steady cash, and it paid a special 13 percent dividend in 2011. Investors can get the stock, which trades on the Madrid exchange, through many brokers.

    While the forecasts for infrastructure spending are not exactly new, the bridge and grid builders have recently become far more attractive investments, thanks to a couple of catalysts: privatization and price. Analysts say many European infrastructure stocks are trading at 15 to 25 percent below year-ago levels because some investors worry about their business prospects amid the latest financial crisis. But investor interest could spike over the next decade, as Europe sells state-owned assets -- a move that often follows sovereign-debt crises, says Bulent Gultekin, an associate finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School who has advised governments on such sales. While the pace of privatization may take a while and be subject to changing political winds, cash-strapped governments faced with the options of increasing taxes, slashing spending or selling public assets may opt to do more of the latter, Gultekin says.

    Indeed, Greece is expected to sell stakes in some utilities, ports and rails by 2015, and Spain has talked about selling some of its stakes in airports in Barcelona and Madrid. Over the next 12 to 18 months, Europe could privatize 10 billion euro ($13.3 billion) worth of assets, and potentially five times that over the next four years, says Andrew Maple-Brown, comanager of the $21 million Delaware Macquarie Global Infrastructure fund.

    To be sure, these stocks could be volatile if Europe's financial troubles curtail projects or China's slowdown is worse than expected. But fund managers say many of the firms, especially those that operate projects, like Spain's Abertis Infraestructuras, are well-diversified and generate a growing share of their business from emerging markets that aren't facing the same fiscal pressures. Says Joshua Duitz, who runs the Alpine Global Infrastructure fund, "These are the stocks I want to own in general -- but especially through an economic crisis."

    $150K: The New "Middle Class"


    Truly, where is our middle class? What amount of income qualifies "the middle class"? We're hearing it non-stop with politicians speaking about saving the middle class, but does anyone really know where this widely-spoken-of middle class lies in terms of income? In 2010, the national median income was $49,445. But although the numbers show our country's middle-ground, does it mean that those making the national median are feeling financially secure?

    What do you think it would take for you personally to feel financially secure?

    $50,000? $75,000? $100,000?

    Well according to a new survey of Americans by WSL/Strategic Retail, those that make $150,000 said they feel the most financially secure. That amount is enough to put a household into the top 10% nationally. But just below that threshold, those making $100-150k income are saying that they can only afford the basics with a little extra on the side. Six-figure incomes are not what they used to be these days. Although the national median is three-times less than $150k, it's looking like we've found a more reasonably logical "middle class", no?

    The way the survey was conducted was to have respondents choose which of four categories best described them:

    I can't even afford the basics

    I can barely afford the basics and nothing else

    I can afford the basics plus some extras

    I can afford the basics, the extras, and I'm able to save too

    The vast majority of consumers making 150k, 88%, say they could buy what they need, afford some extras, and still be able to save. 

    More than half of Americans, 52%, feel like they can only afford the basics and some of these are people with six-figure incomes!

    “We clearly have what used to be upper middle income – 75 to 150k – folks who are saying, it just isn't so,” said Candace Corlett, president of WSL/Strategic Retail. “A quarter of them are saying 'I can barely afford the basics.'”

    Only 18% of households that earn between $100,000 and $150,000 said they could only afford the basics, with another 10% saying they sometimes can't even afford those staples!

    But for everyday purchases, such as the “essential basket of goods,” it is becoming more difficult to provide for your family with basic goods, which includes foods, fuel, public transportation and occasional gifts. Back in December we reported that since 2000, the price of basic purchases has jumped by 43% and households are struggling to pay for the basics.

    According to the WSL/Strategic Retail survey, the youth market, 18-34 years old, is being hit the hardest with these price increases. They are the highest percent of those who do not have enough money to cover their basic needs, with about a quarter (24%) in financial turmoil. As for those over 35, they were able to kickoff their careers 10 years ago, when economical times were much better than they are now. Although the group of 35 years and older are better off than the youth market, they still are struggling and retailers are losing their business.

    From FoodBev.com,

    Branded products [are] under threat, the study shows. Shoppers in general are placing a greater focus on price, with two thirds (67%) of women agreeing that trusted brand names are not worth paying more for. More than a quarter (26%) of women admit that while they used to buy brand names they could not afford, they are no longer giving in to this indulgence. This figure is up seven percentage points from 2010.

    In reference to the overall data put forth by WSL Strategic Retail, the company's CEO, Wendy Liebmann says that the U.S. has some seriously deep rooted issues to deal with:

    “There is a huge fundamental issue when more than half of Americans can only afford basic necessities and people who earn up to $150,000 think they are poor. Look, American shoppers are moving on and coming back to shopping, but at their own pace. As a result, retail sales are precarious and likely to fluctuate up one month, down the next. That’s not going to change any time soon. Brands and retailers cannot ignore this. They will need to re-think the way they do business over the next three to five years — or longer.”

    The purchasing power for the average American paycheck has shrunk significantly along with home prices. T actually see how much it would take to have a decent middle class life within some of America's cities, they calculated the difference between their sample subject town of Peoria, Illinois to the top 6 highest cost of living comparisons. Here is the data they found:

    1. The New York metropolitan area was the most expensive. Equivalent income: $337,311.87. Percent increase to maintain standard of living: 124.87%.
    2. Honolulu: Equivalent income: $258,099.19. Percent increase to maintain standard of living: 72.07%.
    3. San Francisco: Equivalent income: $255,409.43. Percent increase to maintain standard of living:70.27.%
    4. San Jose: Equivalent income: $243,260.85. Percent increase to maintain standard of living: 62.17%
    5. Washington, D.C. area: Equivalent income: $218,127.70. Percent increase to maintain standard of living: 45.42%.
    6. Chicago area came in with a 21.36% increase to maintain the standard of living. Equivalent income: $182,045.06.

    The struggling economy has clearly created a recession mindset among consumers. When asked how long the recession will continue, 80 percent of people say three years or more, Corlett says – up from 43 percent back in 2010.

    “They may not literally mean the government’s definition of a recession, but they certainly mean a recessionary mindset for them,” Corlett says.

     

    Friday, June 29, 2012

    How Awesome Is the Inventory Story at Sirona Dental Systems?

    Here at The Motley Fool, I've long cautioned investors to keep a close eye on inventory levels. It's a part of my standard diligence when searching for the market's best stocks. I think a quarterly checkup can help you spot potential problems. For many companies, products that sit on the shelves too long can become big trouble. Stale inventory may be sold for lower prices, hurting profitability. In extreme cases, it may be written off completely and sent to the shredder.

    Basic guidelines
    In this series, I examine inventory using a simple rule of thumb: Inventory increases ought to roughly parallel revenue increases. If inventory bloats more quickly than sales grow, this might be a sign that expected sales haven't materialized. Is the current inventory situation at Sirona Dental Systems (Nasdaq: SIRO  ) out of line? To figure that out, start by comparing the company's inventory growth to sales growth. How is Sirona Dental Systems doing by this quick checkup? At first glance, OK, it seems. Trailing-12-month revenue increased 16.9%, and inventory increased 11.1%. Comparing the latest quarter to the prior-year quarter, the story looks decent. Revenue increased 8.0%, and inventory increased 11.1%. Over the sequential quarterly period, the trend looks worrisome. Revenue dropped 10.2%, and inventory grew 13.5%.

    Advanced inventory
    I don't stop my checkup there, because the type of inventory can matter even more than the overall quantity. There's even one type of inventory bulge we sometimes like to see. You can check for it by examining the quarterly filings to evaluate the different kinds of inventory: raw materials, work-in-progress inventory, and finished goods. (Some companies report the first two types as a single category.)

    A company ramping up for increased demand may increase raw materials and work-in-progress inventory at a faster rate when it expects robust future growth. As such, we might consider oversized growth in those categories to offer a clue to a brighter future, and a clue that most other investors will miss. We call it "positive inventory divergence."

    On the other hand, if we see a big increase in finished goods, that often means product isn't moving as well as expected, and it's time to hunker down with the filings and conference calls to find out why.

    What's going on with the inventory at Sirona Dental Systems? I chart the details below for both quarterly and 12-month periods.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of latest fully reported quarter. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of latest fully reported quarter. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

    Let's dig into the inventory specifics. On a trailing-12-month basis, finished goods inventory was the fastest-growing segment, up 13.3%. On a sequential-quarter basis, work-in-progress inventory was the fastest-growing segment, up 24.0%.

    Foolish bottom line
    When you're doing your research, remember that aggregate numbers such as inventory balances often mask situations that are more complex than they appear. Even the detailed numbers don't give us the final word. When in doubt, listen to the conference call, or contact investor relations. What at first looks like a problem may actually signal a stock that will provide the market's best returns. And what might look hunky-dory at first glance could actually be warning you to cut your losses before the rest of the Street wises up.

    I run these quick inventory checks every quarter. To stay on top of inventory and other tell-tale metrics at your favorite companies, add them to your free watchlist, and we'll deliver our latest coverage right to your inbox.

    • Add Sirona Dental Systems�to My Watchlist.

    Buy Silver? Gold? Apple?

    Last summer when stocks started to plunge, a lot of friends and relatives told me to buy silver (SLV). I watched the price go up and down, and decided to pass on it. And then this morning, there was an article in the Wall Street Journal about silver:

    The silver market is rife with fervent bulls and bears. And the metal's recent plunge toward $26 has both sides even more steamed than usual.

    That's the traditional baseline that bulls say will trigger a sharp rally higher. The bears, though, say silver is destined to fall further and plumb multi-year lows.

    Silver has bounced between $26 and the mid-to-high forties for the past 18 months. Now that it is grazing the low end of that range-on Thursday, prices for July delivery dropped 2.6% to $26.247 a troy ounce-some investors are betting the pattern will repeat.

    So I decided to look at the history of silver over the past year to see if I made the right decision:

    This chart shows that silver has had a really tough year. And it is this low price that has the bulls and bears fighting over whether silver is at the bottom or if it will drop further.

    At this time last year, I bought Apple (AAPL), and several other companies. As you can see, from the chart above, silver did not perform as well as the rest of the market. And as we all know now, in hindsight, Apple was the superstar. However, the outcome is a little different when you look at the last five years:

    Silver did outperform the market in general, but Apple still came out way ahead. The company is up almost 1000% in comparison. Gold (GLD) has performed about the same as silver since 2005, but Apple is still on top:

    Today, with the good news in Europe, gold and silver are up:

    On Friday, gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) futures for August delivery jumped $53.80 to settle at $1,604.20 per ounce, while silver (NYSEARCA:SLV) futures surged $1.32 to close at $27.61.

    Both precious metals outperformed today as European leaders at a summit in Brussels agreed on plans to create a single supervisor to oversee the financial industry. They also decided on a deal to stabilize the region's debt markets by re-capitalizing its banks.

    The deciding factor for metals is what the U.S. economy is going to do. If inflation is in the future, silver and gold add protection to your portfolio. A long time ago I read something that said "throughout history the exact same amount of gold will buy the same amount of bread, no matter the price". I have never researched that statement, but I don't doubt it.

    On the other hand, if we have deflation, the price of metals will deflate along with everything else. This doesn't necessarily mean they are a bad investment, because the same gold will still buy the same bread, but you will just be playing the game, and not getting ahead of it.

    But there is another element involved in the value of metals. Investors consider them safe regardless of the economy. Especially when people are worried about political economics. Will the current government help/hurt the economy, and the stock market. This is what happened last summer, in my opinion. There was very little discussion about inflation/deflation. People did not trust the government, and the value of the market reflected that.

    I am torn whether to side with the silver bulls or bears on this one. The chart shows the two sides. First silver has gone up dramatically over the last five years. But the price, right now is not cheap.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Are Stock ETFs A Buy?

    S&P 500 exchange traded funds rallied nearly 3% on Monday following a report that U.S. stocks haven’t been this cheap since Ronald Reagan was in the White House. The U.S. blue-chip stock index plummeted 13% over the last five weeks, with the average price-to-earnings ratio down to 12.9, a level not seen since Reagan was in office back in 1982, reports Inyoung Hwang for Bloomberg. The U.S. stock market has seen its value decline by over $2 trillion in the recent sell-off after the S&P 500’s recent high in late July, according to the report.

    Bearish observers believe that the U.S. has been stuck in a slowdown since 2007, arguing that with interest rates already near zero, the Federal Reserve has become limited in its ability to combat the recession. On the other hand, bullish observers point out that skittish investors, fearing another possible repeat of 2008, are trading extremely pessimistically.

    “There are truly some terrific values out there in companies, but it’s a question of timing,” remarked John Massey, a fund manager at SunAmerica Asset Management, in the Bloomberg report. “Right now, the market is very short-term sighted. Every day the market is up or down, and it’s much more of a macro call than anything else.”

    According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 traded at 10.8 times forecasts for profits over the next 12 months of $109.12 a share at the end of last week. In contrast, earnings would have to fall to $71.76 a share if the P/E ratio were to rise back to its 50-year average of 16.4 without appreciation in share prices.

    However, TCW Group Inc.’s Komal Sri-Kumar believes that valuations need to keep dropping before prices are justifiable in a stagnating economy. “Stocks have been at very high levels compared with a very weak economy,” commented Sri-Kumar, the chief global strategist at TCW. “When QE2 was introduced last August, you got a rally in equities prices for several months, but you didn’t get a big push up in economic growth.”

    Other analysts point out that analysts’ profit forecasts may be too high. “Also unsaid was the impact of recession on earnings,” Barry Ritholtz, chief executive at quantitative research firm Fusion IQ, commented on the Bloomberg report. “The Reagan Recession came at the end of a 16-year bear market, plus benefited from [Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker] breaking the back of inflation. The threat today is a Japan-like deflationary spiral, including falling asset prices and an unwillingness for investors to buy up for a dollar of earnings,” Ritholtz wrote. “In other words, a falling [price-to-earnings ratio] could be evidence of an ongoing deflationary phase, and not proof that markets are cheap.”

    SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

    Max Chen contributed to this article.

    Disclosure: Lydon’s clients own SPY.

    Sprint Shares Too Expensive, Bernstein’s Moffett Contends

    Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett this morning reiterated his bearish stance on Sprint (S), defending his Underperform rating and $2.50 target price, well below the current level. His position is that the fact that the company does not consolidate the results of its 56.4%-owned stake in Clearwire (CLWR) distorts the company’s financial position – and makes the stock look more attractive than it really is.

    “Sprint and Clearwire are strategically intertwined,” he writes in a research note. “Clearwire is dependent on Sprint for continued funding, while Sprint’s future competitiveness is, at least in part, dependent on Clearwire’s 4G network.” Ergo, he contends the best way to look at Sprint is on a proportionate consolidated basis, a method he contends “is far more reflective of economic reality than are Sprint’s stand-alone results.”

    If you take that approach, he notes, Sprint’s sales would be marginally higher, but cap ex would be significantly higher, and EBITDA and future free cash flow would be meaningfully lower. On that basis, Sprint’s EV/EBITDA multiple would jump t0 6.5x from 4.8x, he notes, while Sprint’s free cash flow yield would drop to the 6%-7% range, from 15%. On that adjusted basis, he notes, Sprint shares trade at a considerable premium to peers.

    Moffett writes that Sprint’s “relatively lofty valuation” gives rise to “the rather bizarrely anomalous inverse correlation that currently exists in the U.S. wireless market,” with weaker companies getting much more highly valued than weaker ones. “This rather extraordinary circumstance seems to us, to put it mildly, unsustainable.”

    Moffett thinks investors would be better off owning pre-paid wireless companies Leap Wireless (LEAP) and MetroPCS (PCS).

    Sprint today is down 16 cents, or 3.7%, to $4.34.

    Shoppers are skittish in 2012

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The economy may be showing signs of improvement, but consumers are still skittish about shopping, according to a recent report.

    Retail sales are expected to rise just 3.4% to $2.53 trillion in 2012, the National Retail Federation said Monday. That's below 2011's pace, in which sales grew 4.7% over the course of the year.

    The federation blamed a number of factors, including persistently high unemployment, stagnant wage growth, a weak housing market, shaky consumer confidence, inflation and high oil prices.

    The forecast comes on the heels of a modestly successful holiday season in which retail sales rose 4.1%. That was above the retail group's expectation, but still lower than the 5.2% increase notched in 2010.

    Although retailers declared the shopping season a success overall, strong sales were not shared across the board. Luxury stores such as Saks (SKS) fared very well, but discounters and stores geared toward cash-strapped shoppers in the middle and lower income brackets struggled.

    Stores such as Target (TGT, Fortune 500) and Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) had to rely heavily on discounts and promotions to lure shoppers, which does not bode well going forward.

    All those half-off sales will take a toll on margins, which were already narrower than they were a year ago because of the rising cost of materials and transportation. 

    Thursday, June 28, 2012

    Stocks to Watch Tuesday: Avon, Goodyear

    CHICAGO (MarketWatch) � Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd., MetLife Inc., Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., Omnicom Group Inc. and Avon Products Inc. are among the companies whose stocks could see active trading on Tuesday.

    Shares of Yingli Green Energy Holding YGE �were up 5% in after-hours trading after the company�s China subsidiary inked a $100 million agreement with DuPont Co. DD �to acquire certain materials from DuPont used in the adoption of solar energy.

    MetLife MET �is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of $1.24 a share on revenue of $16.9 billion, according to a consensus poll of analysts by FactSet Research.

    Goodyear Tire & Rubber GT �is expected to report a fourth-quarter profit of 20 cents a share on sales of $5.86 billion.

    Advertising agency giant Omnicom Group OMC �is expected to report a fourth-quarter profit of 95 cents a share on revenue of $3.8 billion.

    Avon Products AVP �is seen posting fourth-quarter earnings of 51 cents a share on sales of $3.10 billion.

    Marsh & McLennan Cos. MMC �is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of 46 cents a share on revenue of $2.94 billion.

    BorgWarner Inc. MTRN �is seen posting earnings in the fourth quarter of $1.17 a share on revenue of $1.82 billion.

    Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc. WPI �is seen posting fourth-quarter earnings of $1.75 a share on sales of $1.54 billion.

    Hospira inc. HSP �is seen posting a fourth-quarter profit of 45 cents a share on revenue of $954 million.

    HCP Inc. HCP �is expected to report earnings in the fourth quarter of 38 cents a share on revenue of $450.5 million.

    Weight Watchers International Inc. WTW �is expected to report earnings in the fourth quarter of 87 cents a share on revenue of $412.1 million.

    Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. KORS �is expected to post fiscal third-quarter earnings of 10 cents a share on sales of $348.5 million.

    JPMorgan’s Slide Makes Some ETFs Safer Than Others

    The bad news keeps piling up for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), and so does the uncertainty. The bank was hit by two shareholder lawsuits Wednesday over its surprise $2 billion-and-counting trading loss. The Securities & Exchange Commission is having a look and, more ominously, so is the Justice Department. Even if it all comes to nothing, headlines about the FBI taking a preliminary poke into the bank’s business doesn’t exactly instill confidence.

    True, the sell-off in JPMorgan in wake of the bombshell news could be an opportunity to buy shares in the nation’s biggest bank on the cheap. Then again, as they say on Wall Street, there’s never just one cockroach, so there’s nothing wrong with investors in the financial sector feeling like they should perhaps play some defense in the face of all this uncertainty.

    Zuckerberg�s Biggest Nightmare: Apple?

    Not only is the news flow going against the bank, but the bad trade that clobbered it is still on the books. The firm’s position is so large that it will take time to unwind. Another $1 billion in losses is possible through year end, the bank said, and some reports say the total could balloon to $4 billion.

    That isn’t nearly enough to kill the bank. JPMorgan is expected to earn more than $17 billion in profit this year, and has its self-proclaimed Fortress Balance Sheet. In the parlance of the Street, this is not a “capital event.” JPM is safe, as are its dividend and share-repurchase program.

    But as CEO Jamie Dimon said, the bad trade could lead to earnings volatility over the course of the year. That could very well extend to share-price volatility, too.

    Financial sector bets have come down hard lately, with the JPMorgan news only adding fuel to extant anxiety over the European debt crisis. But the financials are still handily beating the broader market, and if you’re bullish on stocks, you have to like financials, too. It’s hard to see how the market could enjoy sustained gains without the financials participating.

    To that end, exchange-traded funds offer broad, diversified exposure to the financial sector — but some are more tied to JPMorgan than others. As the nation’s second-biggest bank by market cap after Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), JPM has a heavy weighting in the popular large-cap financial ETFs.

    For example, if you’re looking to reduce risk to JPMorgan and any knock-on effects on the other big banks, you might want to stay away from the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF�(NYSE:XLF). JPMorgan is the third-largest holding, with a weighting of 7.8%, according to data from Morningstar. Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) are also in the top five, and they’ll probably move in sympathy with JPMorgan’s stock if more cockroaches do indeed come scurrying out.

    The iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector ETF (NYSE:IYF) also counts JPMorgan, Citigroup and BofA as top holdings. However, with 256 names, it’s far more diversified than XLF, which is more concentrated with just 81 positions. In addition to banks, IYF holds insurance companies, credit card companies and real estate investment trusts. That help makes the IYF less volatile than XLF. Then again, they pretty much move in lockstep.

    For a broad, diversified play on both large and regional banks, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSE:KBE) holds 38 names ranging from Wells Fargo to Valley National Bancorp (NYSE:VLY). No Wall Street titans show up in this ETF. Neither do insurance companies, credit card companies or REITS. KBE has held up better than XLF since the JPMorgan news broke, although it’s trailing the broader IYF.

    Finally, if you just want to hide out in small regional banks, there’s an ETF for that too — the SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (NYSE:KRE). But be forewarned that the sector has plenty of its own issues. The housing, manufacturing and commercial lending markets vary across different regions of the country, meaning these banks face a whole different set of headwinds. That said, KRE has held up best among these ETFs. It’s off less than 3% since the JPMorgan news broke, while JPMorgan itself is down a very painful 9%.

    As of this writing, Dan Burrows doesn’t hold a position in any securities mentioned here.

    Telecom And Healthcare Opportunities In India

    Barings Asset Management just launched a new fund in the U.K. that invests in Indian equities according to a fundsnet article. Barings believes the best opportunities in this battered market rest in two sectors that generally offer stability, healthcare and telecom. It cited healthcare as an area with strong earnings visibility and good cash flows. In addition, the presence of many pharmaceutical companies in India was highlighted as an opportunity for growth, as the companies are able to leverage cost advantages in competing in the generic drug market worldwide.

    Barings was also positive about the telecom sector. The India subscription rate to mobile devices is growing at break-neck speeds and the actual amount of subscribers in India is projected to be 3 times larger than the entire U.S. population toward the end of 2012. In addition the Indian government is relaxing restrictions in this industry that should lead to more consolidation and profitability. Telecom, especially as an access point for the internet, is clearly destined for more growth.

    Currently, there aren’t any India ETFs that focus in these two sectors although there have been filings to launch ETFs focused in these areas by Direxion and EG Shares. Until then, here is the telecom and healthcare exposure within the largest and most broad based India ETFs: PIN, EPI and INDY.

    (Click chart to enlarge)

    PowerShares' PIN is the most attractive ETF to gain exposure to the Healthcare and Telecom sectors currently.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. Christian Magoon is the publisher of IndiaETFs.com.

    February Basic Materials Sector Dogs Chase A Bull

    This monthly report series began in December, applying dog dividend methodology to each of eight major market sectors. In alphabetical order these sectors are: basic materials, consumer goods, financial, healthcare, industrial goods, services, technology, and utilities.

    The ninth sector, conglomerates, contains just eight firms-- five of which pay dividends (according to Yahoo Finance). Thus the reporter declined to apply dogs of the index metrics to such a limited universe, declaring. "such a task is comparable to a dog show judge trying to evaluate a Chihuahua based on St. Bernard conformation standards."

    Dogs of the Index Metrics Used to Select The Top Ten Sector Stocks

    Two key metrics determine the yields that rank index or sector dog stocks: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price of the stock declares the percentage yield by which each dog stock is ranked. Investors select portfolios of five or ten stocks in any one index or sector by yield to trade. They await the results from their investments in the lowest priced, highest yielding stocks they selected and pray that the price of every stock they now own climbs higher (having locked in a high yield percentage at purchase).

    This Dogs of the Index strategy, popularized by Michael B. O'Higgins in the book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), reveals how low yielding stocks whose prices increase (and whose dividend yields therefore decrease) can be sold off once each year to sweep gains and reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index.

    Comparative Methods Used

    First, the entire list of basic materials sector companies is sorted by yield as of February 24 using Ycharts.com to reveal the top thirty. Market performance of these thirty selections is then reviewed using four months of historic projected annual dividend history from Yahoo Finance, with annual divided projections reviewed adjusted for market realities.

    Thereafter, today's article goes on to assess the relative strengths of the basic materials sector top ten dividend dogs as of February 24 vs. the Dogs of the Dow January 10 stock list. Annual dividends from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks in the sector and index are compared to the aggregate single share prices of the top ten stocks in the sector and index.

    Basic Materials Dividend Dogs

    The top ten basic materials stocks paying the biggest dividends in January are mostly in the oil and/or gas industry: Whiting (WHX); Ferrellgas (FGP); Calumet (CLMT); Enerplus (ERF); BreitBurn (BBEP); Permian Basin Trust (PBT). Only four of the top ten basic materials firms do not mention oil and gas in their industry description: Great Northern (GNI); Oxford (OXF); Rhino (RNO) CVR Partners (UAN).

    Vertical Moves in February's Basic Materials Dogs

    In the past months, two firms-- one oil and gas and one steel and iron-- claimed the top of this list by yield. One Oil and gas firm (Torch Energy Royalty Trust (TRU)) slid off the top 30 list in January based on a revised annual dividend forecast of $.17 per share, leaving the top to the steel and iron company, Great Northern . In February, Whiting USA Trust price declined 5.3% resulting in a marked bump in yield. Meanwhile, Great Northern Iron annual divided projection was adjusted to equal that paid in 2011 while its share price increased 1.27%. Those two factors combined to allow Whiting to reclaim the lead yellow color tinted dog title for O&G firms.

    Color code shows: (Yellow) firms listed in first position at least once between November 2011 and February 2012; (Cyan Blue) firms listed in tenth position at least once between November 2011 and February 2012; (Magenta) firms listed in twentieth position at least once between November 2011 and February 2012; (Green) firms listed in thirtieth position at least once between November 2011 and February 2012. Duplicates are depicted in color for highest ranking attained.

    Click to enlarge

    Bullish vertical moves made since January 20 include the aforementioned GNI, with its share price increase of 1.27%; Ferrellgas Partners with a 8.62% price gain; Calumet Specialty Products Partners showed an 11% increase; BreitBurn Energy Partners with a .736% price gain; Enerplus Corporation with a 3.1% price gain; QR Energy (QRE) exited the top ten as a result of its 5.93% gain.

    Bearish moves for the same period were experienced by Whiting USA Trust, with its aforementioned 5.3% price decline; Oxford Resource Partners showing a 20.27% price slump; Rhino Resource Partners with a 3.61% decline; CVR Partners made it into the top ten Basic Materials Sector dogs by yield after posting a 11.11% decline.

    Dividend vs. Price Results vs. Dow Dogs

    Below is a graph of the relative strengths of the top ten basic materials dividend sector stocks by yield as of February 24, 2012 compared to those of the Dow. Using four months of historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks each month, and the total single share prices of those ten stocks, creates the data points for each month shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

    Click to enlarge

    Conclusion: Basic Material Dogs Chase a Bull

    The February basic materials collection of 30 mainly oil and gas dividend payers showed multi-directional market performance during recent months when dividends and prices behaved in lock step rising and falling together at the monthly points surveyed. This month this sector came to be bullish, as other sectors in which aggregate dividends increase when aggregate prices fall.

    Meanwhile, the Dow index moved to beyond convergence as dividends from $1k invested in the top ten nearly sank lower than aggregate total single share prices in February. The basic materials sector top ten show $653 more dividends (with equally bigger risk) at a $150 lower aggregate share price for the top ten dogs than those of the Dow as of February 24.

    At the end of each month, two summaries will conclude this new series of articles by showing comparative results of yield and price for all eight sectors reported: basic materials, consumer goods, financial, healthcare, industrial goods, services, technology, and utilities.

    Disclosure: I am long T, VZ, INTC, JNJ, CVX.

    Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

    Keystone pipeline: Separating reality from rhetoric

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- President Obama stopped in Cushing, Okla., on Thursday to announce a fast-track approval process for a portion of the Keystone XL oil pipeline -- although it's not the part for which he's taken political heat for blocking.

    The portion likely to start construction soon runs from Cushing, a key repository of U.S. oil, to the Gulf Coast.

    The full proposed pipeline, which would cross the U.S. border in Montana, is designed to bring between 500,000 to 700,000 barrels a day from the Canadian oil sands region to refineries on the Gulf Coast. It would shortcut to an existing pipe that goes through much of Canada before cutting into the United States in North Dakota on the way to Cushing.

    Republican presidential candidates have used the rejection of the shortcut pipeline as a hammer when attacking the Obama administration over high gas prices. They also say the Keystone will create much needed jobs.

    Here are three facts about what the decision will and won't mean.

    This is not a flip-flop by Obama: Even when Obama blocked the full Keystone project earlier this year, he said he was in favor of this Cushing-to-Gulf portion. And that is the only portion he is backing now.

    Approval of this southern part of the pipeline is not really the Obama administration's call. The northern portion of the pipeline needs administration approval because it would cross the Canadian border.

    Rising gas prices aren't as bad as you think

    The Cushing-to-Gulf segment is much more of a local issue. So Thursday's announcement is more theater than substance.

    "This is pretty routine, but the politics are clear here," said Bob Tippee, editor of Oil & Gas Journal, an industry trade publication.

    Environmental groups oppose even this portion of the pipeline since they don't like anything that increases production of oil from oil sands.

    But compared to the other portion of pipeline, which stirred concerns of Nebraskans worried about underground water supplies, the Cushing-to-Gulf pipeline is relatively non-controversial. More than 99% of property owners where the pipeline will run agree to it.

    Gas prices might go up, not down: Right now, a lot of oil being produced in Canada and North Dakota has trouble reaching the refineries and terminals on the Gulf. Since that supply can't be sold abroad, it reduces the competition for it to Midwest refineries that can pay lower prices to get it.

    Giving the Canadian oil access to the Gulf means the glut in the Midwest goes away, making it more expensive for the region.

    "The price that refineries on the coasts have been paying is around $120 a barrel for months, while you had $75 to $80 a barrel crude available in the Rockies and Midwest," said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service.

    Much of the difference in gas prices between states is due to gas taxes, not cost. But Kloza said that the center of the country might have benefited by up to 25 cents a gallon in what they were paying for gas because of the glut of oil around Cushing.

    The full pipeline would increase the capacity of oil flowing from Canada's oil sands into the broader global market by up to 700,000 barrels a day, according to advocates. But adding even the 700,000 barrels to more than 90 million barrels worldwide will have limited long-term impact on prices, especially amid worries about what might happen with Iran production.

    "In the current market, people are so worried about the loss of 3.5 million barrels from Iran, that 500,000 to 700,000 barrels isn't enough to calm the markets," said Tippee.

    The impact on jobs will be minimal: The Republican supporters of the pipeline have argued Keystone will create much needed jobs.

    Speculators are driving up gas prices -- opinion

    But even though this southern portion of the pipeline is relatively "shovel ready," the impact on unemployment will be minimal. Even TransCanada says it will create about 4,000 jobs, mostly temporary construction work. That comes to less than 2% of the nation's overall monthly job gain in recent months.

    If the full pipeline got the green light, it would create 13,000 construction jobs and 7,000 jobs making equipment such as pump houses and the pipe itself, according to the company.

    Pipeline critics dispute even those job estimates. 

    Dividend Monsters Hedge Funds Love The Most

    We love dividend stocks because they usually have better risk-return combinations than the rest of the market. They won't make you rich, but they will help you stay rich. In this article, we are going to take a closer look at a few high dividend stocks with the highest number of hedge fund positions. We limited our analysis to U.S. stocks with at least $10 billion market cap and dividend yields of above 5%. Hedge funds generally do not invest in dividend stocks for their high dividends. Instead, they want to achieve capital gains in a year or two and they don't mind receiving high dividends while waiting for their positions to appreciate significantly.

    Company name

    Dividend

    No of HFs

    Eli Lilly & Co (LLY)

    5.07%

    32

    Verizon Communications Inc (VZ)

    5.17%

    27

    Exelon Corporation (EXC)

    5.42%

    23

    Altria Group Inc (MO)

    5.45%

    23

    Reynolds American Inc (RAI)

    5.30%

    22

    AT&T, Inc (T)

    5.73%

    21

    CenturyLink, Inc (CTL)

    7.51%

    20

    Eli Lilly & Co is the most popular high dividend stock among hedge funds tracked by us. It has a dividend yield of 5.07% and there were 32 hedge funds with LLY positions in their 13F portfolios at the end of 2011. For example, Jim Simons' Renaissance Technologies had over $300 million invested in Eli Lilly at the end of last year. Ray Dalio, Israel Englander, Ken Fisher, and Jacob Gottlieb were also bullish about Eli Lilly.

    Eli Lilly's patent on Zyprexa recently expired. Its patents on a few other drugs are also going to expire soon. These drugs with pending patent expirations that are expected to reduce Eli Lilly's annual sales by about $7 billion from 2010 to 2014. As a result, Eli Lilly is currently trading at a low forward P/E ratio of 10.62, versus 16.25 for the average of the pharmaceutical industry. However, we think there are still better options than Eli Lilly. For example, another healthcare stock Pfizer Inc (PFE) has an even lower forward P/E ratio of about 9. Pfizer also has a decent dividend yield of 4.1%. Pfizer's payout ratio is 63% and Eli Lilly's is 50%. But Pfizer has much stronger earnings growth than Eli Lilly. In fact, Eli Lilly's earnings are deteriorating. For the fourth quarter of 2011, Eli Lilly reported EPS of $0.77, versus $1.05 for the same quarter a year ago. According to Zacks, Eli Lilly's earnings are expected to decline by about 6% per year in the next couple of years, while Pfizer is expected to grow by about 4% annually. Therefore, Pfizer has the ability to maintain or even increase its dividend payouts in the near future.

    Verizon Communications Inc is the second most popular high dividend stock among hedge funds tracked by us. At the end of last year, there were 27 hedge funds with Verizon positions in their 13F portfolios. They had around $600 million invested in this $108 billion market cap stock. Cliff Asness' AQR Capital Management had $67 million invested in Verizon.

    Verizon has a high dividend yield of 5.17% and the company has been raising its dividend payouts for seven consecutive years. It recently increased its quarterly dividend from $0.4876 per share to $0.50 per share, which was paid to its shareholders in November last year. Verizon's payout ratio is a bit high though. Its current payout ratio is above 200%. The main reason for the high payout ratio is Verizon's poor earnings in the fourth quarter. It had a net loss of $2 billion. The total net income for 2011 is $2.4 billion, versus $2.5 billion for 2010 and $4.9 billion for 2009. Verizon kept increasing its dividend payouts while its earnings are deteriorating, leading to a high payout ratio. The poor performance in the fourth quarter also explains a high current P/E ratio of 45. However, analysts are optimistic about Verizon's future growth. The company is expected to grow rapidly in 2012, resulting in a low forward P/E ratio of 13.92. If Verizon grows as fast as expected, its payout ratio for 2012 will be lower than 80%.

    We think Verizon's earnings growth is mainly dependent on how much its wireless margins expand. The company's wireline segment was relatively stable over the past year, thanks to the growth of Verizon FiOS. On the other hand, the growth in its wireless segment is slightly below analysts' estimates over the past year. It is very likely that the expansion of wireless margins will continue to be the theme for the year ahead. Verizon seems to be a bit overvalued compared with its main competitor AT&T Inc (T). Verizon's forward P/E ratio is 15% higher than the 12.10 for AT&T. We think AT&T is a better dividend play than Verizon. It also has a higher dividend yield of 5.73%. Moreover, in order to boost its wireless margins and earnings growth, AT&T has been increasing its price and pulling back on promotions, subsidies and upgrades. AT&T is also quite popular among hedge funds. Twenty-one hedge funds reported owning AT&T in their 13F portfolios at the end of last year, including Israel Englander's Millennium Management and Bill Miller's Legg Mason Capital Management.

    A few other dividend stocks that hedge funds love include Exelon Corporation (EXC), Altria Group (MO), Reynolds American Inc (RAI), and CenturyLink Inc (CTL). At least 20 hedge funds reported owning these stocks in their 13F portfolios at the end of last year. We do not agree with these hedge funds on CenturyLink though. The stock seems to be overvalued compared with its peers. Domestic tobacco stocks also look a bit overvalued compared with the market. Strong investor demand for these reliable dividend payers has elevated stock prices considerably. These are still better alternatives than the 10-year Treasury bonds though.

    Utility stocks also experienced a similar investor demand over the past year. Exelon's forward P/E ratio is slightly below 14. This is rich for a low growth stock that is facing significant competition because of cheap natural gas prices. Overall we prefer high dividend stocks with low forward PE ratios and mega-cap pharmaceuticals and telecom stocks generally fit the bill. Tobacco and utilities stocks may disappoint over the short-term though.

    Disclosure: I am long T, VZ.

    S&P 500 in positive territory for 2011

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Don't call it a comeback just yet, but investors brought holiday cheer to the stock markets pushing the S&P 500 back into positive territory for 2011 and the Dow up 6% for the year.

    On a light trading day ahead of the holiday weekend, investors scooped up stocks after economic reports released Friday morning continue to provide glimmers of hope for the U.S. economy with better-than-expected readings on personal spending, income and housing released Friday morning.

    The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 124 points, or 1% Friday. The index is up 3.6% for the week and 6.1% for year.

    The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 11 points, or 0.9% Friday, adding 3.7 for the week and 0.6% for the year. The Nasdaq (COMP) moved 19 points higher, or 0.7%, and despite moving up 2.7% this week, it's still down 1.3% this year.

    "The overall message coming through is that there are tentative signs of stability coming into housing and construction and the economy overall," said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at Prudential Fixed Income.

    Still, with light volume and limited data, stock market watchers says it's quiet on trading floors.

    What the payroll tax deal would do

    "We don't anticipate any big action today," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "We won't have much data, and the volumes will be low."

    Investors are watching yields on Italian 10-year bonds, which have moved up into the danger zone of 7%. Despite that, European markets closed the day up.

    On Thursday, stocks finished a quiet session higher, after a stronger-than-expected reading on unemployment boosted investor optimism.

    The government reported that the number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest level since April 2008. There were 364,000 initial jobless claims last week, 4,000 fewer than the week prior.

    Investors got more good news after Thursday's market close, as House Speaker John Boehner said that he would accept a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut, a move that ensures taxes will not increase on Jan. 1, 2012.

    The source of much angst on Capitol Hill in recent weeks, economists viewed the scheduled tax increase as a significant potential drag on the economy in the first quarter of next year.

    World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) ticked up 1%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany added 0.5% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) gained 1%.

    Asian markets ended higher, with Tokyo closed for holiday. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) rose 0.9% and the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong jumped 1.4%.

    Economy: Before the opening bell, the Commerce Department reported durable goods rose 3.8% in November. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected durable goods to rise 2.0%.

    Both personal income and personal spending rose 0.1% in November.

    A Commerce Department report on new home sales showed that new home construction rose 1.6% in November compared to 1.3% in October. The figure beat expectations but still shows a relatively sluggish pace of growth in the housing sector.

    Currencies and commodities: The dollar lost strength against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

    Oil for February delivery rose 28 cents to $99.81 a barrel.

    Gold futures for February delivery fell $1.60 to $1,606.00 an ounce.

    Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 2.03% from 1.95% Thursday.  

    Wednesday Apple Rumors — iPhone Unlimited in Mississippi

    Here are your Apple rumors and AAPL stock news items for Wednesday:

    Regional iPhone Carrier Offers Unlimited Data Plans: Mississippi telecom C Spire can’t even compete with fourth-place national telecom T-Mobile in terms of subscribers. The regional provider has fewer than 1 million subscribers, while T-Mobile has 33.5 million. So what does C Spire have that T-Mobile doesn’t? The Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone. The company revealed on Oct. 19 that it was the fourth telecom to officially support Apple’s device in the U.S. Now a Wednesday report at All Things Digital says C Spire subscribers are getting an even better deal. The company will offer unlimited data plans to its iPhone users as of Nov. 11. The only other iPhone carrier to offer unlimited data plans is Sprint (NYSE:S), meaning that, at least in C Spire’s coverage area, the company could woo customers away from industry leaders Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and AT&T (NYSE:T).

    iPhone 4S Users Reporting Battery Life Problems: Apple’s latest iPhone is flying off shelves. Since its release on Oct. 14, the iPhone 4S has avoided the controversy that plagued its predecessor, the iPhone 4. What would an Apple product launch be without a few sour grapes, though? A Tuesday report originating at The New York Times said that more and more iPhone 4S owners are taking to the Internet to complain about the device’s poor battery life. Users are reporting that the battery drains quickly even when the phone isn’t in use and even when power-intensive features like video playback have been deactivated. Apple has yet to comment on the issue.

    Angry Birds Hits 500 Million Downloads: Angry Birds, Rovio’s video game and brand that has become the face of the smartphone boom during the past two years, has now been downloaded 500 million times. This includes all versions of the game, including the original iconic iPhone version, the free-to-download, advertising-supported Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android version, and special editions like Angry Birds Rio. Rovio is projecting that its expansion into China in 2012, with the opening of retail stores, will yield approximately $100 million in new revenue in the first year. While it has moved far beyond Apple’s device, it was the iPhone that gave Angry Birds its start in the far-gone days of 2009.

    As of this writing, Anthony John Agnello did not own a position in any of the stocks named here. Follow him on Twitter at�@ajohnagnello�and�become a fan of�InvestorPlace on Facebook.

    Telecom Mobile Payment System Isis Gets POS Partners

    A mobile-device payment venture headed by AT&T (NYSE:T), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), and Deutsche Telekom�s (PINK:DTEGY) T-Mobile has acquired point-of-sale partners, pushing the project closer to launch. POS companies VeriFone (NYSE:PAY), VivoTech, Ingenico, and Equinox are the latest additions to the Isis project, which utilizes near-field communication (NFC) technology to allow owners of enabled smartphones to pay at the register with a wave of the phone.

    Prior arrangements with payment networks and phone manufacturers are part of a strategy aimed at making Isis a competitor to the Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) Wallet system, which stores payment-card data, and related promotional offers, on your phone and online.

    A mobile payment transaction involves several aspects that need to correlate for the transaction to process. The shopper must have a phone that is equipped with NFC hardware and a software �wallet,� or payment method, linked to the device. On the merchant side of the transaction, the merchant’s register needs to have specialized hardware that includes an NFC chip that�s capable of reading the signal that the phone�s hardware sends when a payment is authorized.

    Isis had previously enlisted�manufacturers such as HTC, LG (PINK:LGEAF), Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM), and Sony (NYSE:SNE) to add Isis technology to their NFC-equipped smartphones. The four major payment networks�Visa (NYSE:V), American Express (NYSE:AXP), Discover (NYSE:DFS), and Mastercard (NYSE:MA)�announced their support�of Isis transactions. The POS partners say they will help ensure that stores have the hardware needed to fulfill mobile sales as the companies promise to integrate Isis into all future products, such as register terminals. VeriFone alone provides about 70% of the POS equipment used by major�retailers in the United States.

    �A market thick with competition

    Isis�is set to roll out this year, starting with test runs in Austin and Salt Lake City. The service will be joining a mobile payment market expected to become increasingly saturated in the next two to three years. Google has its Wallet, which is connected with Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Mastercard. Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD) and Visa�last week forged an agreement to bring mobile payments to the European market. PayPal has already rolled out its mobile payment system to 2,000 Home Depot stores.

    Retailers including Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and Target (NYSE:TGT) are poised to launch their own mobile wallets in the near future, according to The Wall Street Journal. And this week Square, which allows credit card payment via mobile devices, announced Square Register, an application written for Apple�s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPad that allows POS transactions while it provides product menus and tracks inventory and customer purchases�all without standard POS equipment and maintenance fees.

    The frontrunner of the mobile payment race will end up being the service that has numerous supported mobile devices, solid system security, and extensive merchant support. Google Wallet is currently the most well known payment system but it can be used only on the Nexus S smartphone, faced two recent security breaches, and works at a small (albeit growing) group of stores.

    Isis already has the benefit of associating with the largest telecom companies and payment networks, names that consumers are inclined to trust with a payment. Integration of the POS systems into a wide range of stores may be the deciding factor behind the success or failure of Isis.

    Rife with debt downgrades, street protests and sputtering economies, Europe has been a no-fly zone for most investors for more than a year. But some contrarians have been betting big on the Continent -- and quietly racking up impressive gains.

    Despite the negative headlines pouring out the region, shares of European companies have been soaring. The Stoxx Europe 50, which tracks the Continent's blue chips, is up 9% this year through March 9 -- almost three percentage points better than the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

    Also See
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    • Muni Bonds That Can Kick It Up a Notch
    • The 10 Best Stocks of the Past 20 Years

    Fund managers who bumped up their exposure to Europe and the U.K. in recent months are faring even better. The $2.1 billion Fidelity Overseas fund, which has nearly three-quarters of its portfolio in Europe, is up 14%, while the $8.5 billion Oakmark International has risen 16%. Those bets went against the tide: Investors have in the past six months yanked $6.9 billion out of international and global stock funds with heavy exposure to Europe, according to research firm Lipper. "The big mistake investors make is they think Europe is all one thing," says David Herro, co-manager of the Oakmark fund. "But Europe contains numerous subeconomies, some of which are doing well, some are not."

    Experts say the gains are causing a classic dilemma for a host of financial advisers and brokers who have been shielding client portfolios from Europe, and are now wondering if it is too late to shift gears.

    Indeed, Margaret Black-Scott, president and CEO of Beverly Hills Wealth Management, says some of the easy money has been made already. "We've taken some of the money off the table. We have to be more thoughtful now," she says.

    Nevertheless, some pros still are scooping up European shares. Jim Moffett, lead manager of the $7.8 billion Scout International fund, said he is focused less on overall country exposure and is looking to buy "good companies in troubled places," such as Spanish apparel firm Inditex (ITX.MC) SA and Italian eyewear company Luxxotica Group.

    At the $28 billion Thornburg International Value fund, co-manager Wendy Trevisani has been buying select financials that largely avoided euro-zone sovereign debt, such as U.K. bank Standard Chartered, which she says taps into growing demand from emerging markets in Asia like India and the Middle East.

    Some truly brave managers are even betting that beaten-down stocks from the Piigs (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) will outperform this year. Michael Gayed, the chief investment strategist at Pension Partners, says central banks around the world are pumping money into the markets to jump-start inflation -- and heavily indebted companies and countries tend to perform well during inflationary periods.

    Euro-bears aren't so sure. The European Commission recently forecast the economy to contract this year, they point out, while the Continent's Central Bank remains firm on the need for severe austerity measures for the worst-hit countries -- both potentially bad omens for stocks. "Hopefully, it is past the worst point, but Europe is still facing a tough battle to return to sustainable growth in the face of still serious headwinds," says Howard Archer, chief European and U.K. economist of IHS Global Insight.

    —Sarah Morgan contributed to this article.